Some people would say there is never a good time to bet on a debutante horse.
To be honest, if that is your answer you may have had your fingers burned a time or two and if you decided not to bet I wouldn’t blame you. There is no doubt betting on debutantes is hard work and a very tricky betting medium. Without expert insight you are chancing your luck and to make money gambling you can’t rely on your four-leafed clover.
In the early part of the two-year-old season the advantage, if you can call it that, is most horses are debutantes. This is a changing scene as the season progresses and in the latter part of the season debutantes face a stiffer task. However, betting on two-year-old race horses isn’t all bad news. With that comes a proviso, you need to do your homework first.
There are two categories of debutante: Easy winners or poor losers. You don’t want to be betting on the latter because they are very frustrating. Even after 30-years experience of betting juveniles it is hard work. When it comes to horses on their racecourse bow you need to have an in depth understanding of horse trainers. It is a major factor why a horse is likely to win or not. You may wonder why but some two-year-old horse trainers simply do not win with debutantes. Some haven’t had a single debut winner for years from a large sample of horses. Clearly, this should ring alarm bells and make you tread careful. If you don’t know the trainer you don’t know the horse. It is as simple as that. Also, it is imperative you understand when a trainer hits form and try to anticipate this happening. You may say: ‘Well, how am I going to know that?’ Trainers are very much creatures of habit and they follow a set pattern. Don’t believe me, then you go and look at the data and you will soon appreciate the facts. I’ve studied the data for many trainers and month by month they have contrasting results. For example, some trainer win with debutantes at the start of the season while other later. I’ve noted certain trainers who have never had a debut winner in certain months and that covers runners over a decade. For obvious reasons you don’t want to be betting on one of those. The key point is you need to know this information rather than betting blind. This information isn’t freely available so you are pushing your luck if betting without being informed.
In truth, betting on two-year-old debutantes isn’t for everyone. Even a seasoned gambler is likely to fall short. The problem for most talented juveniles, which you may hear about, is that many are so inexperienced they simply cannot do themselves justice. Also, in the early part of the season when racing over the minimum trip (usually taking no more than 60 seconds to race) a slow start can be a great leveller for even a horse which, in time, will be a standout. That’s the nature of the beast – two-year-old horse racing.
Unless you are very confident in your understanding of this niche you are better to simply watch and learn. From a statistical point of view, two-year-old horses have their best chance of winning second start.
At least when a horse has form you can assess it better. If you are judging a horse on its breeding, ownership or trainer you may get the wrong end of the stick. As with all gambling, knowledge comes before money. Simple words but true. If you don’t have good reason to bet you are best to keep your money in your pocket.
Always gamble responsibly.