Should Trainer Form Dictate Whether You Bet Or Not?

It’s an interesting point.

I remember one racing correspondent and pundit (although for the life of me I can’t remember his name) said not betting on a horse trainer when out of form is a mistake.

What do you think?

I guess we all have our opinions. In fact, horse racing is one of those sports we all have an opinion and by the winning line we have our answer to the question. Perhaps. There’s always a reason why a horse should have won or lost even after the result.

Ask Greville Starkey who was vilified for his ride on Dancing Brave in the 1983 Epsom Derby. His whole career seemed to be assessed on that one race.

Harsh when he rode almost 2,000 winners in a Flat racing career that spanned 33 years.

‘It’s just an opinion, hey?’

As an expert in the niche of two-year-old horse racing, I review each and every horse and race throughout the year and trainer form is something I take note. For example, the 2023 Flat season has seen the likes of Ralphe Beckett and Andrew Balding in sparkling form all season. No mean feat when most have peaks and troughs.

While John Gosden, who is normally in flying form has been very much below par. This begs the question: ‘Does this lesser strike rate make me view his chances differently?’

‘You bet it does!’

I think the question of out of form is better assessed by saying, beyond a virus in the stable, that the general standard of horse is lower quality than usual. It happens. And it often catches out the trainer as much as it does the punters. Most two-year-olds gallop with their own age group and it takes time to assess the quality of horses in the stable. I have a multitude of ways to assess any individual horse and it is often noticeable that even those two-year-olds with a very high statistical chance of winning fall short. When this happens, it adds to my reasoning that the quality of horse is much poorer than normal.

When I notice this happening I am very careful backing a trainer’s horses.

Why?

Because they are frustrating and generally disappoint throughout the season. Without doubt, sooner or later, that opinion filters through to the prices and you will see that not only are the horses out of form, the punters (if not the layers) know it too.

So should you be concerned when stables are out of form? I would be. It doesn’t mean they can’t win and we know what follows bad luck (good luck) and the tide will turn at some point.

However, if someone feels they want to take on the burden of an out of form trainer by betting on them: ‘Then, you go, girl!’.

Yes, I’m being sarcastic.

I wouldn’t be betting myself.

I think much of sport – winning – is about momentum. When you have that on side it is like riding the crest of a wave. That is a force which you want onside. The other side of the coin details when a trainer is out of form. If you want to push a boulder up a hill, then you can do so but it’s not the route I would take.

When gambling you need every positive going and to think you can oppose a negative is a problem you don’t need.

Who was Josh Gifford?

The late Joshua Thomas ‘Josh’ Gifford died in the early hours of February 9, 2012, at the age of 70, after suffering at his yard in Findon, West Sussex, where he had trained for 33 years. As a trainer, Gifford enjoyed success at the highest level, as he had previously, as a jockey, and saddled a total of 1,586. His finest hour in the training ranks, though, came on April 4, 1981, when he saddled Aldaniti, ridden by Bob Champion, to win the Grand National and create one of the greatest sporting stories in history.

Aldaniti had sustained a career-threatening, and possibly life-threatening, leg injury at Sandown Park in November 1979, which meant he was confined to his box for six months and off the racecourse for over a year. In fact, that was just the latest in a series of injuries so severe that, without the intervention of owner Nick Embiricos, he may well have been humanely euthanised. However, he was nursed back to form sufficiently to be sent off 10/1 second favourite for the Grand National, behind only 8/1 favourite Spartan Missile, a dual winner of the Aintree Foxhunters’ Chase and, arguably, the greatest hunter chaser in history.

Champion, for his part, had sought medical advice on a swollen testicle, after being kicked by a horse, in July 1979, only to be diagnosed with testicular cancer. Given only a 30%, or 40%, chance of survival, Champion, 31, immediately embarked on powerful, extremely aggressive programme of chemotherapy, of which he later said, ‘You felt horrendous; you just felt sick 24 hours a day. A lot of people having my treatment gave up, and I nearly did one day too.’ He didn’t, though, and having completed the programme eventually recovered sufficiently to resume his job as stable jockey to Gifford, whom he later described as ‘the most loyal trainer there’s ever been’. The ‘fairytale’ story of Aldaniti, Champion and Gifford – which, in real life, reduced his trainer to tears – was immortalised by the 1984 film ‘Champions’, starring John Hurt as Champion as Edward Woodward as Gifford.

Aldaniti aside, Gifford also handled several other top-class horses, including Deep Sensation, winner of the Queen Mother Champion Chase in 1993, Bradbury Star, winner of the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown in 1992, narrowly beaten in both Sun Alliance Chase that year and the King George VI Chase in 1993, and winner of the Mackeson Gold Cup in 1994, among others. Perhaps rather surprisingly, he never won the National Hunt Trainers’ Championship, although he did finish runner-up behind David Elsworth in 1987/88.

Born in Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire on August 3, 1941, became apprenticed to trainer Cliff Beechener at the age of 11 and rode his first winner on the Flat at Brimingham Racecourse in 1956, when still not yet 15 years old. Major wins on the Flat included the Manchester November Handicap and the Chester Cup, but, after fighting a losing battle with the scales, Gifford was forced to turn his attention to National Hunt racing, with no little success. Indeed, despite being a direct contemporary of Fred Winter, Terry Biddlecombe and Stan Mellor, he formed a successful partnership with Captain Ryan Price, which, by the time of his retirement in 1970, had yielded a total of 642 winners and four National Hunt Jockeys’ Championship titles, in 1962/63, 1963/64, 1966/7 and 1967/68.

As a jockey, Gifford never won either of the premier steeplchases, the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Grand National. However, he may well have won the latter on favourite Honey End in 1967, but for the now-infamous pile-up at the fence now known as ‘Foinavon’ on the second circuit. Honey End made up ground, hand-over-first, over the remaining fences, but Foinavon – a bona fide 100/1 outsider, who had been turned down by three jockeys beforehand – was not for catching and past the post 15 lengths ahead.

Who Is Mrs Fitri Hay?

If you love horse racing you have most likely heard of the ‘Golden Couple’ Fitri and James Hay.

Their pink and green racing silks are a familiar sight on UK racecourses. Horses are stabled with many high-profile trainers including: Charlie Hills, Paul & Oliver Cole, Andrew Balding, Ed Walker, Richard Hannon, David Simcock, Robert Cowell, Jonjo O’Neil, Ralph Beckett to name a few.

(This is to reduce the risk of a virus.)

Mrs Fitri Hay has all horses registered solely in her name.

Born in Jambi, Sumatra, she met her husband, James, in Jakarta, Indonesia, and got married on the 25th August 1996.

It’s been a whirlwind ever since.

James established the JMH Group in 2002 after a working for BP for 27 years. He has an impressive academic record and doctorate of Physical Chemistry. Fosroc is part of the company servicing the construction industry with 16 factories in 13 countries. Fosroc Global Trading services operates in a further 70 countries with total staff of 1700.

James Hay had a love of horse racing for over 50 years, while Fitri said she become a ‘racing widow’ when she came to live in the UK in 1998.

In fact, the Hay’s are significant owners with over 250 winners including Group 2 and 3 successes. The best winner being Here Comes When who tasted victory in the Sussex Stakes Group 1 (2018).

Fitri says their main objectives within racing is to develop top class stallions to go to stud. This requires a horse to win at Group class in the UK, France or the USA and, ideally, for the horse to have a good pedigree. Without this, stallions aren’t likely to achieve the highest stud fees.

She says: ‘ Good bloodlines don’t guarantee top class winners, but poor ones almost certainly guarantee losers.’

It’s true, that this philosophy drives the industry. You only have to consider a super sire such as Galileo who could ask £500,000 for a live foal and that could cover 200 mares a year if not doubled if ‘shuttled’ to covers horses in the Southern Hemisphere. (A staggering £200 Million per year).

Fitri continued: ‘We have owned racehorses since 2001 but to date we only have one significant stallion: Traffic Guard’ (who is based in South Africa).

‘Developing top class bloodlines is where the value lies.’

This is one reason why breeding stock from their own mares helps with costs. Prize money is another way of covering costs. However, this only covers about 25% of stable fees for a decent horse.

‘Winning top class races is essential to developing top class stallions and mares.’

The Hay’s view owning thoroughbred horses from a business approach but this is just one aspect of their venture. The thrill of owning a winning race horse, especially a prestigious race is very special. Breeding a winner adds to the celebration.

This power couple have enjoyed memorable days racing and were even guests of the late Queen for lunch at Windsor Castle and included in the Royal procession down the track in one of the Queen’s carriages.

The future looks bright for the Hays, and their Racing Manager, Alex Cole, helps plot the path for each and every horse with trainers and themselves.

Firti and James Hay came back to the UK in 2011 following the purchase of Birch Grove House and Estate in West Sussex. Their business headquarters are still managed and based in Dubai.

Both via their company and personally, the Hays support varied charities including projects to help and educate children in Indonesia.

This outstanding couple have much to look forward to and their philanthropic ways continue to help many less fortunate than themselves.

How many winners did Ruby Walsh ride at the Cheltenham Festival?

Rupert ‘Ruby’ Walsh announced his retirement from the saddle, with immediate effect, on May 1, 2019, having ridden Kemboy, trained by Willie Mullins, to victory in the Punchestown Gold Cup. Of course, Walsh had enjoyed a long, lucrative affiliation with the County Carlow handler, becoming stable jockey at Closutton on his return to his native Ireland in 2013. He said afterwards, ‘ I think I knew going out that if he won I wouldn’t ride again.’ Mullins, for his part, said, ‘Ruby was fantastic there, I’m delighted for him.’

Hailed by BBC horse racing correspondent Cornelius Lysaght as ‘a supreme horseman’, Walsh was still only 16 years old when he rode his first winner of any description, Siren Song, trained by his father Ted, in a National Hunt Flat Race at Gowran Park on July 15, 1995. He became Irish Champion Amateur Jockey in both 1996/97 and 1997/98 and, on March 18, 1998, still two months shy of his nineteenth birthday, he opened his account at the Cheltenham Festival aboard Alexander Banquet in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper.

Walsh won the Irish Jump Jockeys’ Championship for the first time in 1998/99, but it was his victory on another horse saddled by his father, Papillon, in the Grand National, on his first attempt in 2000, that first drew him to the attention of the wider racing public. Just for good measure, 16 days later he would also win the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse on the former Triumph Hurdle winner Commanche Court, also trained by Walsh Snr., who was having just his fifth start over the larger obstacles. Indeed, Walsh would soon become a force majeure on both sides of the Irish Sea, having agreed a formal riding arrangement with Ditcheat trainer Paul Nicholls in 2002.

Walsh won Irish Jump Jockeys’ Championship again in 2001/2002 but, remarkably, granted he was splitting riding duties between Nicholls in Britain and Mullins in Ireland, he would win the title six years running between 2004/05 and 2009/10. In fact, following his decision to spend more time at home in 2013, he would win the title another four years running between 2013/14 and 2016/17, for a record 12 titles in all.

Nevertheless, immediately after his retirement, now 14-time Champion Trainer Nicholls was hugely complimentary about his erstwhile stable jockey, saying, ‘He’s been a fantastic jockey, a fantastic ambassador for the sport and he’s just a great man. He’s one of the best jockeys ever to ride for us and will always be a friend.’ Indeed, praise for Walsh was universal, befitting a jockey who, despite more than his fair share of injuries, finished his career with 2,767 winners to his name. He ranks third in the all-time list in Britain and Ireland, behind only Sir Anthony McCoy, with 4,348 career winners, and Richard Johnson, with 3,819.

For all his success elsewhere, though, from the point-of-view of the average punter, Walsh is likely to be remembered for his record-breaking exploits at the Cheltenham Festival. The aforementioned Alexander Banquet kick things off way back in 1998, but over the next two decades or so Walsh would add another 58 Festival winners, culminating with Klassical Dream, trained by Mullins, in the opening Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (a record sixth win in that race) on March 12, 2019. His final career total of 59 winners is 16 more than the second jockey on the all-time list, Barry Gergahty, with 43 winners and 28 more than the third, the otherwise indomitable McCoy, with 31 winners.

Between 2004 and 2017, Walsh won the leading jockey award at the Cheltenham Festival no fewer than 11 occasions and, on two occasions, in 2009 and 2016, rode a record seven winners over the four days. Fittingly, since 2020, his former weighing room colleagues have competed for a statuette of the great man, known as the ‘Ruby Walsh Trophy’.