General

Betfair was founded in the year 2000.

The turn of the millennium bought much excitement to a gambling world that had seen change over the previous decades but slowly stagnating. The idea of a betting exchange was a revolution and it was an exciting time for backers and layer alike. For the first time the general public could become bookmakers without a licence.

It was truly a remarkable time.

Since those early days we have seen a number of betting exchanges such as Matchbook, Betdaq, Smarkets, Betconnect and Spreadex. We shouldn’t be scared of competition and it is good to have options. However, there is only so much money in the betting pool and with a vast number of bookmakers and betting exchanges there is cause to be concerned by the money being spread too thinly which doesn’t really help anyone. I don’t have the data to detail the liquidity of the Betfair markets some 15 years ago but they must have been a lot stronger than seem these days.

I follow two-year-horse racing and the limited money on the Betfair markets is concerning. When you see just £20,000 bet on a race (£10,000 in real money terms as the back and lay are shown) with perhaps 30 minutes before the off it is getting to the point where the markets are on the verge of collapse. When you consider that much of this is the same money going around with backs and lays with traders looking for a quick profit the actual real money bet on any given race must be miniscule. It’s true, the markets liven up in the last 10 minutes before the start of the race as the traders come in with bigger cash and the traditional gamblers look for value.

To be honest, the early markets, especially the evening before are almost worthless. You may get lucky and get a few quid on a horse but it really is a dance between the traditional bookmakers and the betting exchanges which makes markets volatile. I guess for the traders this isn’t all bad news. Certainly with poor liquidity there is ample opportunity for the markets to be manipulated with a small amount of money. I am sure some manipulate the exchange markets hoping the bookmakers push out the betting and someone steps in to take advantage. The bookmakers are then quick to readjust the betting and go much shorter odds which I’m sure they take advantage of too. Often these ‘gambles’ drift back out to similar or larger odds.

The only time you can guarantee good liquidity is on the major meeting especially the likes of the Cheltenham Festival when the betting is robust.

There is little we can do about poor liquidity. Perhaps if one or two of the platform disappear it will bolster the market strength but that’s unlikely to happen.

Personally, the exchanges are just about strong enough to cater for my needs because I’m betting smaller money or wait until just before the start of the race. However, if I wanted to bet £1000 it would be a pointless exercise. Sure, I could lay a bet of £1000 if I thought I could get a horse beaten but that doesn’t seem to happen on the early market where most backers and layers keep their cards close to their chest.

The betting exchanges are functioning. It’s as though they are ticking over and punters just wait for the late market to do business. Perhaps this is just the nature of the beast and a similar pattern on the stronger market too.

However, many punters are concerned that the liquidity is so poor that they would rather bet with bookmakers. However, with their restrictive nature of limiting or closing any account that may threaten their profit line you will be struggling to make much ground. I have heard of many punters opening up multiple accounts under different people’s names and betting small money across the board to slip under the radar. It really does seem a testing time for the gambling industry with welfare issues at hand which just makes a difficult situation worse.

It seems you are damned if you win or lose.

However, the betting exchanges are a lifeblood for many punters and I’m thankful they exist as bookmakers would sound a death knell to most profitable punters as they are restricted.

It’s a strange situation when bookmakers have turned into extremely ugly accountants.

They’ve taken the turf out of the equation which long term sees everyone lose.

For the time being, my first and last port of call will be the betting exchanges. At least if you get a bet placed you don’t have to fear the worst that your account won’t exist tomorrow.

Catching the train from Norwich to Great Yarmouth, I looked along the isle way for a seat and there he was, Eddie ‘The Shoe’ Fremantle, heading to the racecourse.

You may have seen Mr. Fremantle at racecourses across the country and you’ve definitely seen him on Racing TV, often with Lydia Hislop, giving his thoughts on the card. These days he is a freelance journalist and well respected by press and punters alike. It should come as no surprise that he learned his trade from being a professional punter.

Fremantle detailed in a series of insightful videos with Star Sport (2018) that from a young age he backed Lassalle in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot in 1973. However, it was in his teenage years that he took a real interest in the ‘Sport of King’.

A chance meeting on a train to Ludlow gave him his first job working on Racing & Football Outlook. By all accounts he got chatting to deputy editor Ian Davies. A few months passed and Davies was made editor and he contacted Fremantle with the job offer as a sports tipster.

Later, he worked with the now defunct Sporting Life as the ‘Man on the Spot’ for four years.

In the 1990s he devoted his time solely to being a professional gambler and backing horses for a living. However, after 8 years he returned to journalism taking a prized job with The Observer as racing correspondent although continues to be a pro gambler.

This allowed him press access to racecourses and facilities.

Fremantle still bets to this day and a regular pundit on Racing TV. In fact, he has been a horse racing pundit and writer since 1999.

Even to this day, he goes to the racecourse four or five times a week. He said he is a ‘modest punter’ preferring to bet small which often helps with losing runs. He quoted: ‘If you bet rarely with big money you really have to get it right!’

Also, he said: ‘If you never chase your losses you’ll never get them back.’ Clearly, he advises responsible gambling but there is logic in what he says.

‘There is no substitute for hard work.’

He advised punters to:

• Stick to your chosen niche (Flat or National Hunt)

• Study the form from press and video

• Examine the performance of every horse and every race

• Do ‘something different’ to set yourself apart from the crowd

• Spot something overlooked by the rank and file of the betting public

• Prepare your own betting ‘tissue’ to find value and even bet on more than one horse in a race

• A high number of bets is often better than a selective approach

As far as I am aware, Eddie Fremantle hasn’t written a gambling biography as seen by the likes of Dave Nevison, Harry Findlay or Patrick Veitch. However, I would suspect Fremantle’s stories would surpass them all.

There are many talented racing journalists and pundits but few are as respected as this quietly spoken man.

Eddie Freemantle’s twitter account:  https://twitter.com/eddietheshoe

The most common reference regarding psychology and gambling is in the field of psychopathology and gambling addiction. Clearly, this research has been helpful in not only defining the clinical aspects of compulsive gambling but finding treatments to help individuals.

However, there is another side to gambling psychology which is becoming popular and that is how psychology – the study of behaviour and mind – can be used as a tool for advantage. It’s a fascinating and little known subject for the simple reason that most research is undertaken by individuals or corporations who invest often large sums of money to appreciate gambling from the perspective of the human condition.

Psychology has become something of a dark art for both backers and layers using this powerful data and insight to take advantage of those who simply do not know that psychology is being used against them.

I have found a couple of psychological angles based on theories and principles which detail such advantage. One is related to the Contrast Principle which hypothesizes that people often over compensate when judging variables. This is an interesting finding because it gives an opportunity for those informed. An example, gamblers often consider a beaten horse has little chance of reversing the form. Consequently, the price offers greatly value.

Many advantages relate to social psychology, particularly stereotypical behaviour or fixed action patterns, which suggest – via the human condition – that individuals behave in very predictable ways. As these behaviours are unconscious, those with insight win your cash.

The betting exchanges are an area where psychology is at play. These well-informed gamblers use psychological theories and principles to making a killing. The great white sharks in a small pond feeding on its prey.

It’s a fascinating subject matter.

I would suggest to anyone using betting exchanges to watch how they bet, especially those actions which lead to regular loss. They may fall prey to a layers using psychological angles and beating the odds. It could be something very simple such as the timing when placing a bet. In fact, it could be almost anything. Simplicity is often key. However, the only person who knows these psychological principle is the one who has done the research and found statistical significance. Obviously, the sale of such information is unlikely.

The use of psychology within gambling is a subject you won’t hear or find much literature. In fact, this is one of few posts on the internet because little is known about this subject. However, make no mistake it is used by the few who are making a living from something most cannot envisage or see.

The ultimate winning principles with a psychological underpinning.

The Secret.

Who doesn’t want to know the secret to success? If only you had believed enough!

But what is the law of attraction and can it help you become a successful gambler?

The philosophy of like attracts like. The focus of intentions and thoughts. You can attract positive outcomes and success into your life. In essence, if you believe you are a professional gambler it could happen.

‘It’s the latest self-help book everyone needs!’

But could it help you become a professional gambler?

The law of attraction instils that we have a direct influence on this process. However, whatever you may hear, there is no scientific evidence to support this premise. It is a belief system which cannot be objectively tested. Positive thinking and strong mindset doesn’t guarantee success.

The law of attraction is disguised as your best friend, hope and all you have ever wanted.

It’s why you have to question any guru who details how mindset is so important and it comes before you get the ‘secret sauce’. There is a reason for that. The mindset is to get you onboard with the program and suck you in.

You are given the illusion that you can achieve the impossible if you follow the system.

No amount of motivation or believe will transform your life alone.

It gives the impression that you don’t need any skill. As if you have the right mindset and believe you can outweigh your lack of skill to a point it is more important than skill.

‘Just keep on trying. It was just about to work for you but you quit. You just didn’t put in enough effort. And guess who I blame…’

‘You!’

To be a successful gambler is based on skill. Anyone who tries to tell you different – it’s a scam.

The guru will say: ‘You just didn’t believe enough.’

Strip away the pseudo science and it’s an empty box. Who is the person to gain? It’s not you.

Consider these main concerns:

• Lack of scientific evidence

• Over simplification of complex issues

• Victim blaming

• Unrealistic expectations

• Lack of accountability

• Neglect of negative emotions

• Financial exploitation

• The placebo effect

The law of attraction isn’t something used to help you succeed it is actually something used against you.

Please remember to gamble responsibly. There are no guarantees to success. Most professional gamblers started from a blank slate and learned their craft. It was by trial and error. It is a life of hard knocks.

If someone tries to use the concept of the law of attraction to afford gambling success I can tell you without doubt it is a scam.

Good luck.