Although rarely spoken or written about as such, the ‘Spring Double’ remains a time-honoured and potentially lucrative ante-post bet, which involves coupling the winner of the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster with the winner of the Grand National at Aintree. Traditionally the feature race on the opening day of the British Flat season, on turf at least, the Lincoln Handicap is scheduled for Saturday, March 23, 2024, while the Grand National is due to take place three weeks later on Saturday, April 13, 2024.
At the time of writing, the first leg of the Spring Double, the Lincoln Handicap, is still some months away, but the ante-post markets for both races are taking shape. Indeed, in the unlikely event that the ante-post favourite, or joint-favourite, wins both legs, the current odds of reward are a not-to-be -sneezed-at 128/1, so it’s definitely worth taking a look at the likely contenders, even at the early stage.
The 97-rated 4-year-old Botanical, trained by Roger Varian, currently heads the ante-post market for the Lincoln at odds of 8/1. The Lope De Vega has won two of his five starts so far, both at distances beyond a mile, on good to soft and soft going, on the undulating, testing track at Hamilton. Indeed, on his most recent visit to the South Lanarkshire course, in October 2023, Botanical ran out an easy 6-length winner of a Class 3 handicap, for which he was subsequently raised 10lb in the weights. At that stage, Varian said, ‘…he should be a nice horse next year’, although he did add, ‘…ground is quite important to him’.
Notwithstanding the cancellation of 2020 renewal, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the word ‘soft’ has failed to appear in the going description on Town Moor just three times in the last ten runnings of the Lincoln. Botanical may well have his ideal underfoot conditions, but the 10lb rise obviously makes life more difficult in a race as competitive as this and whether he’s quite as effective over the mainly flat, straight mile at Doncaster remains to be seen.
Obviously, with 97 entries for the Lincoln at this early stage, there are plenty of alternatives. For a recommendation, though, we’re looking to the lightly-raced 6-year-old Chazzesmee, trained by James ‘Fozzy’ Stack in Co. Tipperary. The son of high-class miler Excelebration was an comfortable winner at Naas in March 2023 and, despite a 98-day break, came within a length of defying a 13lb rise in the weights in a valuable handicap at the Curragh the following July. That form makes good reading in the context of this race and, with underfoot conditions unlikely to pose a problem, Chazzesmee makes no little appeal at 16/1.
Notwithstanding the reduction in the number of starters, from 40 to 34, in 2024, the Grand National still presents the thorniest of thorny problems from a punting perspective. Bookmakers currently bet 16/1 the field, which brings in last year’s winner Corach Rambler, trained by Lucinda Russell, Mahler Mission, trained by John McConnell in Co. Meath, and Vanillier, trained by Gavin Cromwell, also in the so-called ‘Royal County’.
Of that trio, despite lacking experience of the idiosyncratic Aintree fences, the second-named makes the most appeal, having finished a gallant, 3¾-length third in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury on his reappearance, despite losing both front shoes in the process. Mahler Mission was arguably an unlucky loser when falling at the second-last fence, when still 4 lengths in front, in the National Hunt Challenge Cup at the Cheltenham Festival last March. His stamina for the extra half a mile or so of the Grand National needs to be taken on trust, but he was keeping on well at the time of his Festival mishap, so looks to have bright prospects.