At first glance this may seem a strange question. However, if you have any understanding of two-year-old horse racing it should capture your attention. You may say why? Well, if you want to make your betting pay these kind of questions needs answers. Perhaps you think horses simply win in a random nature. In some respects they do. However, there is good reason to appreciate why a horse may when in any given race. If you are interested in a horse winning let’s say a maiden race on its 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th race it is a positive to have some understanding and how and why this may happen.
Considering two-year-old horses start as a blank slate when it comes to form they are a different kettle of fish to older horses (clearly, older horses may be making their debut too but in general they are different to the juveniles).
The chance of a two-year-old winning is very much to do with the horse owner, trainer, breeding, betting and other factors and variables. One thing you can guarantee is that if a horse doesn’t have the intention of winning on debut (or any time for that matter) it is very unlikely they will win. It’s not impossible as trainers do say they were surprised their horse won but compared to those who think their horse has a live chance the numbers are small.
Two-year-old horses by their nature are inexperienced and due to their date of birth mature at different rates. This has a biological underpinning too.
However, if you had to consider the most likely time a two-year-old horse is going to win what would you say?
Many of you would say a decent juvenile should win on debut. And to a point that is true. Logically a horse that has a level of ability should be able to win on its racecourse bow. However, it may well be opposing horses with experience and this makes life a little harder. Inexperience can prove costly for debutantes and reason why it can be a difficult time for them to win. I would suggest it has as much to do with the opponents in the race as the ability of the debutante itself. If a horse starts slowly it can be very difficult for them to make up ground especially over a sprint distance. Also, a trainer may well instruct the jockey to give the horse a nice introduction. They don’t want to frighten the horse or put it off racing which can happen more easily than you think. For these reasons first time out is a fair opportunity for a horse to win but not the most likely day.
In my opinion, the best time for a two-year-old horse to win is second start. From my statistical work it is a fact. Clearly, again, this does vary from horse trainer to trainer. However, with the initial experience on debut a horse is generally fitter, wiser and placed to give a good account of itself. Also, the intention is to win. The jockey will be told to make every effort to win and if its a close finish they will be determined to the line. If you are betting blind, with no interest in form or betting price (which is unwise) you would have some hope of finding a winner on the horse’s second start compared with others.
Remember we are talking about horses winning maiden race or more precisely non handicaps. For many two-year-olds of limited ability their best option is to race in a nursery. This is where horses are allotted a weight for their perceived ability and they run in that category. For example, a horse may be given an official rating of 60. It is allowed to run in a race 0 – 60 (if can run in a higher grade race). This restricts the competition as a horse rated over 60 wouldn’t be illegible to race in this class. Basically, this gives lesser class horses a chance to win. No owner would be interested in owning a horse if it was impossible to win.
So we have to consider that a lesser class horse is unlikely to win a maiden in its first few starts as the competition is stiff. In addition, it must race at least three times in a maiden for the official handicapper to observe the horse and be able to give it a handicap mark. Sometimes the horse will have to run four times.
Most two-year-old horses will be run on their merit. The more cynical race fan would suggest many juveniles are not trying so they are given a low handicap mark.
Two-year-olds running on their third and fourth start are less likely to win than first and second start. This is mainly detailed in the fact they couldn’t win on those earlier starts. So in ways, the more races a horse takes to win a maiden race the less chance they have of winning. If a horse has been in a few competitive races it may have been unlucky and take advantage when it finds a weaker race. For this reason, horses which are priced at shorter odds have an increased chance of winning compared to those at bigger odds. Yes, I know that sound stupidly logical but there is slightly more to that last comment than meets the eyes.
Most horses which haven’t won a maiden on their first four starts will be heading to nursery races to take advantage of a lower category of racing.
To appreciate the chance of any horse winning it needs to be assessed as an individual and on its merits. It wouldn’t make sense to generally view a two-year-old on its second start as the reason to bet disregarding other factors. However, it would be a mistake no to appreciate that if a horse is likely to win in its career its second start is of interest.