With the introduction of betting exchange, punters had the chance to become bookmakers.
At the time of the Betfair going live in 2000, many bookmakers feared the exchange would have an impact on their business. This formation of unregulated ‘bookmakers’ consisted of anyone with a laptop and the knowledge, skill, bravery or ill-thought-out hope they could win a few quid from the stampede of punters using this new platform.
Simply do what the bookmakers do from the comfort of your own home.
Easy. ‘Money without work!’
It’s worth noting that your successful to win at any form of sports betting is skill based.
Sure, you could chance your wad of cash with cold, hard luck, but it wouldn’t last too long in this competitive world.
A few years back, I started laying horses to lose. Being a careful gambler, this dipping my toe into the pool was, to some extent, an unnerving experience.
To be a successful gambler you need to have a plan based on skill and the process to make it work. At a very basic level this is about finding and having answers to questions. If not, what is your basis for understanding? You don’t want to be laying horses to lose based on a wing and a prayer. It’s not good news.
With my experience of two-year-old horse racing and data analysis I was confident I could find an angle that would pay dividends. In my opinion, to outwit the gambling public you need to know more than them (which isn’t an easy thing) as even that strange bloke at the bookmakers may be willing to take your bet. If you make a mistake you will pay the price because there is always someone who knows more. To be fair, there will be times when someone knows more. Your approach needs to detail such a profit that you can afford the odd horse to win. You don’t want it to happen but there is no such thing as perfection in the gambling world.
I decided to lay two-year-old debutantes. There were reasons for this although I don’t want to say too much for obvious reasons. However, the point I am making is you need to know your subject matter as if you are a Mastermind contestant. I’m not joking! You need to have an understanding of your niche subject matter that goes beyond 99% of the population. You may get away with less but you need to draw the line as high as possible.
You don’t need to know everything about everything. There isn’t the time or the need. Just know your subject well.
Believe it or not, I laid over 100 consecutive losers. I can’t quite remember the tally before that first winner popped up and it may have been closer to 150. Luckily it was a 10/1 shot. Considering I was laying horses to win £20 a time that cost me £200. As I was already in profit by over £2,000+ it wasn’t a concern. That’s not to say laying horses at giant odds is a pleasurable experience. Many of the horses I laid to lose were astronomical odds. Some were 100/1+. So a potential loss of £2,000 to win £20.
I know what you are saying: ‘You must be mad!’
I had a few horses at big odds go close. Perhaps a couple of lengths away or finishing well. It’s not what you need. I hoped most lay bets would fall out of the stalls and be instantly outpaced. An easy £20. Some races I would lay four horses. An easy £80. There was never anything easy about laying a horse that was 50/1+. In theory, they were the least likely to win. That suited me fine. However, anything is possible. We’ve all seen the 100/1 shot win (that may be 250/1 on the exchanges). Little by little, although winning £5,000, I wasn’t feeling so comfortable about laying horses at giant odds. In fact, I think just before I stopped laying horses I had a phobia about it. I had always been a person who bet on horses to win and it felt much more natural than all this ‘laying’ horses to lose.
It plays on your morality.
If you laid a horse to lose at odds of 200/1 to win £20 or lose £4,000 (in a National Hunt race with one fence to jump) would you pray the horse fell at the last?
I laid horses to lose on the Flat and within reason I’d be hoping almost anything if it meant I won rather than lost a bundle of cash. If some old witch who lived around the corner gave me a spell I’d have cast it on every horse to lose.
The phobia was setting in.
I felt uneasy with every race and lay bet, especially those at giant odds.
I seemed to hit a plateau. Stuck at £5,000. I’d win a good few hundred and then another 10/1 shot would take the edge off it.
Then one day, after going to my aunts funeral, I noticed a horse to lay in an evening race at Kempton. I thought that would be an easy £20 in my pocket. You don’t need me to tell you the ending of the story but I will.
I laid a debutante trained by Luca Cumani to lose £750. I was pretty convinced it would lose and I would be £20 richer. It didn’t help when the short priced favourite looked in trouble a long way out. I had a distinctly uneasy feeling in the pit of my stomach. Next I scanned to see where the Cumani beast was positioned and how it was going. It was mid-division and going very easily. If I could have bought a ‘killer’ spell for £200 trust me I would have. I had to watch every second as the horse started to fly down the home straight. It was going so fast I knew unless something unbelievable happened (like Mystic Meg burst into the room) that I was witnessing a ‘certainty’. I know they say in racing there isn’t any such thing as a certainty, but this was it. It got to the lead and won by a number of lengths. I was left with the question: ‘Why did I lay that horse on this day?
That’s life.
If you can’t cope with losing then you shouldn’t bet. Not that it makes losing money any easier but it’s the kind of thing Aristotle (the philosopher) would whisper in your ear.
It could have been worse. It could have been a bet that cost me all my winnings.
After that day, I never laid a horse to lose again.
Perhaps I should have carried on. I may have won a fortune. I stopped with £4,000+ in my pocket.
It was a learning experience and not all bad.