How many times have you bet on a horse convinced it will be backed?
For many gamblers and traders alike, this is the way they make money. I’m sure there are plenty of traders who have methods which proves successful, stealing a fraction of a point often with bots which work faster than humans.
I often say the only sure way you know if a horse is going to be substantially backed is because you know someone intended to lump on. This information isn’t going to be known by many if any for obvious reasons. So your average gambler is left with the quandary when should I bet with hope of finding value but fearful of betting and seeing their selection drift to double the odds or worse. We’ve all had the good and bad side of the coin. It’s a strange one as sometimes I have been convinced a horse is a value bet at 10/1. Keen not to miss the price I bet and to my frustration I see it drift to double the odds.
Not good.
And the converse, a horse I literally give no chance is hammered down in the odds and starts a short priced favourite.
Have you been left feeling there is no real answer to the question?
If I knew the full answer to this question I would be a very rich man. Sadly, I don’t so I am left with doing the best I can with the information I have.
Here are a few ideas.
1) Following The Market
Traders will be familiar with this approach as it often leads to decent bets or trades. Basically, you watch the market and if the money comes you jump in and place a bet and hope the horse is continually backed to exit with a profit or lay your stake for a no lose bet and hope the horse wins. Layers will do the same if they see a horse drifting substantially in the market. This often happens in the last few minute preceding the start. The aim of both trades/bets is not to be caught at the extremes when the market turns as you could be left with a loss if bailing out. I often use this approach to take advantage of layers when pushing a horse to extreme odds which can make a very good value bet. Sometimes these extreme drifters are a sign that someone knows the horse simply won’t perform (for whatever reason) but not always. In fact, they can make great bets.
2) Using Statistics
Data and statistics can help you predict the markets in many ways and be used as a good foundation. For instance, within two-year-old horse racing, which I have lots of data, we may look at john Gosden and see that over half of all his debutantes start at betting odds of 13/2 and less starting price (sp). If we see a horse at bigger odds we can presume that it may well be backed into a shorter price. Clearly, this is a risky move as the horse may simply be poor and won’t be backed and may even drift to a giant price. For this approach to work you need to have information that tells you the horse has ability. I have a number of ways to help predict this but, as usual, its not in my interests to detail this here. However, you will note many trainer’s horses are backed in line with their basic statistics and it is a realistic approach to finding value bets.
3) Horse Owners
Many punters follow horse trainers but it can also pay to follow horse owners. I’m not talking about the likes of Godolphin but some of the high-profile owners who slip under the radar especially some of those who are selective. By this I mean, certain owners simply don’t allow a poor horse to race and that means they generally race juveniles that are likely to achieve a winning standard of ability. This understanding and knowledge is worth its weight in gold. Take a look at a few owners and see their statistics. Many have over 50% win and place rate for their two-year-olds for this very selective reason. To add to the hopes many of these horses are priced at speculative odds. It pays to do your homework and have a shortlist of owners who are up tot he winning mark. They are worthy of your time.
These three methods may seem something and nothing but they help appreciate there are plenty of opportunities to know something more than most and when it comes to gambling that can often be the difference between winning and losing money.