Can The Law Of Attraction Help You Become A Successful Gambler?

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The Secret.

Who doesn’t want to know the secret to success? If only you had believed enough!

But what is the law of attraction and can it help you become a successful gambler?

The philosophy of like attracts like. The focus of intentions and thoughts. You can attract positive outcomes and success into your life. In essence, if you believe you are a professional gambler it could happen.

‘It’s the latest self-help book everyone needs!’

But could it help you become a professional gambler?

The law of attraction instils that we have a direct influence on this process. However, whatever you may hear, there is no scientific evidence to support this premise. It is a belief system which cannot be objectively tested. Positive thinking and strong mindset doesn’t guarantee success.

The law of attraction is disguised as your best friend, hope and all you have ever wanted.

It’s why you have to question any guru who details how mindset is so important and it comes before you get the ‘secret sauce’. There is a reason for that. The mindset is to get you onboard with the program and suck you in.

You are given the illusion that you can achieve the impossible if you follow the system.

No amount of motivation or believe will transform your life alone.

It gives the impression that you don’t need any skill. As if you have the right mindset and believe you can outweigh your lack of skill to a point it is more important than skill.

‘Just keep on trying. It was just about to work for you but you quit. You just didn’t put in enough effort. And guess who I blame…’

‘You!’

To be a successful gambler is based on skill. Anyone who tries to tell you different – it’s a scam.

The guru will say: ‘You just didn’t believe enough.’

Strip away the pseudo science and it’s an empty box. Who is the person to gain? It’s not you.

Consider these main concerns:

  • Lack of scientific evidence

  • Over simplification of complex issues

  • Victim blaming

  • Unrealistic expectations

  • Lack of accountability

  • Neglect of negative emotions

  • Financial exploitation

  • The placebo effect

The law of attraction isn’t something used to help you succeed it is actually something used against you.

Please remember to gamble responsibly. There are no guarantees to success. Most professional gamblers started from a blank slate and learned their craft. It was by trial and error. It is a life of hard knocks.

If someone tries to use the concept of the law of attraction to afford gambling success I can tell you without doubt it is a scam.

Good luck.

When Is Two-Year-Old Horse Most Likely To Win A Race?

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At first glance this may seem a strange question. However, if you have any understanding of two-year-old horse racing it should capture your attention. You may say why? Well, if you want to make your betting pay these kind of questions needs answers. Perhaps you think horses simply win in a random nature. In some respects they do. However, there is good reason to appreciate why a horse may when in any given race. If you are interested in a horse winning let’s say a maiden race on its 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th race it is a positive to have some understanding and how and why this may happen.

Considering two-year-old horses start as a blank slate when it comes to form they are a different kettle of fish to older horses (clearly, older horses may be making their debut too but in general they are different to the juveniles).

The chance of a two-year-old winning is very much to do with the horse owner, trainer, breeding, betting and other factors and variables. One thing you can guarantee is that if a horse doesn’t have the intention of winning on debut (or any time for that matter) it is very unlikely they will win. It’s not impossible as trainers do say they were surprised their horse won but compared to those who think their horse has a live chance the numbers are small.

Two-year-old horses by their nature are inexperienced and due to their date of birth mature at different rates. This has a biological underpinning too.

However, if you had to consider the most likely time a two-year-old horse is going to win what would you say?

Many of you would say a decent juvenile should win on debut. And to a point that is true. Logically a horse that has a level of ability should be able to win on its racecourse bow. However, it may well be opposing horses with experience and this makes life a little harder. Inexperience can prove costly for debutantes and reason why it can be a difficult time for them to win. I would suggest it has as much to do with the opponents in the race as the ability of the debutante itself. If a horse starts slowly it can be very difficult for them to make up ground especially over a sprint distance. Also, a trainer may well instruct the jockey to give the horse a nice introduction. They don’t want to frighten the horse or put it off racing which can happen more easily than you think. For these reasons first time out is a fair opportunity for a horse to win but not the most likely day.

In my opinion, the best time for a two-year-old horse to win is second start. From my statistical work it is a fact. Clearly, again, this does vary from horse trainer to trainer. However, with the initial experience on debut a horse is generally fitter, wiser and placed to give a good account of itself. Also, the intention is to win. The jockey will be told to make every effort to win and if its a close finish they will be determined to the line. If you are betting blind, with no interest in form or betting price (which is unwise) you would have some hope of finding a winner on the horse’s second start compared with others.

Remember we are talking about horses winning maiden race or more precisely non handicaps. For many two-year-olds of limited ability their best option is to race in a nursery. This is where horses are allotted a weight for their perceived ability and they run in that category. For example, a horse may be given an official rating of 60. It is allowed to run in a race 0 – 60 (if can run in a higher grade race). This restricts the competition as a horse rated over 60 wouldn’t be illegible to race in this class. Basically, this gives lesser class horses a chance to win. No owner would be interested in owning a horse if it was impossible to win.

So we have to consider that a lesser class horse is unlikely to win a maiden in its first few starts as the competition is stiff. In addition, it must race at least three times in a maiden for the official handicapper to observe the horse and be able to give it a handicap mark. Sometimes the horse will have to run four times.

Most two-year-old horses will be run on their merit. The more cynical race fan would suggest many juveniles are not trying so they are given a low handicap mark.

Two-year-olds running on their third and fourth start are less likely to win than first and second start. This is mainly detailed in the fact they couldn’t win on those earlier starts. So in ways, the more races a horse takes to win a maiden race the less chance they have of winning. If a horse has been in a few competitive races it may have been unlucky and take advantage when it finds a weaker race. For this reason, horses which are priced at shorter odds have an increased chance of winning compared to those at bigger odds. Yes, I know that sound stupidly logical but there is slightly more to that last comment than meets the eyes.

Most horses which haven’t won a maiden on their first four starts will be heading to nursery races to take advantage of a lower category of racing.

To appreciate the chance of any horse winning it needs to be assessed as an individual and on its merits. It wouldn’t make sense to generally view a two-year-old on its second start as the reason to bet disregarding other factors. However, it would be a mistake no to appreciate that if a horse is likely to win in its career its second start is of interest.

How do Bookmakers ‘Make Their Book’?

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At racecourses across the country you will see bookmakers, often known as turf accountants, offering odds against the next race on the card. It’s a tradition which goes back centuries and unlike many countries, which use a tote system, a unique characteristic of horse racing in the United Kingdom.

In essence, bookmakers need to know little to nothing about the horses in a given race. How could they possibly have an opinion on each and every horse? It’s impossible and pointless. Bookmakers have a system where the odds are slightly in their favour (akin tot he house edge at the casino) which means long term they have the odds in their favour. This gives them a winning advantage over punters. However, a skilful punter can turn the tables on even the most canny layer. For this reason both need to respect each other.

Looking at horse racing results you will see the total starting price (SP).

For example, the 7:00 Wolverhampton, won by Crimson Coronet (4/7f), had a total SP of 120%. This percentage is the possible profit for the bookmaker spread across the horses in the race. In this instance there were nine runners.

Bookmakers are not guarantee a winning book and it is dependent on the result. If the favourite wins it is very likely the bookmaker will lose money on that race.

In general, if the favourite wins a race, the bookmaker will lose. If the second favourite wins, they will try to break even and if any other horse wins they should make a profit. If an outsider wins, they could make a killing. However, this is dependent on whether a bookmaker has laid a winning outsider which could see significant liabilities.

For example, if a 50/1 shot is laid to £80 it would see a potential loss of £4,000. At smaller racecourses, bookmakers would struggle to take that much money per day let alone per race. There simply isn’t that volume of business beyond those more prestigious meetings such as the Cheltenham Festival. Any bookmaker worth their salt tries to make a good book. By that I mean, they limit significant loss on any given horse. Clearly, they should negate such liabilities by laying off some money with other bookmakers or using betting exchanges. You will notice bookmaker often use Betfair to help manage liability. For instance, if someone bets on a horse priced 50/1 and the betting exchange offers 100/1 they could, in theory, take just about half of that bet as profit without fear of loss.

Betting exchanges have transformed the forming of traditional betting markets. This has lessened the skill or need for odds compilers. I can remember being at Great Yarmouth racecourse in the days before the betting exchanges. You would see a few brave bookmakers pricing up the next race. They were literally testing the market. It was being formed before your eyes. This was a time when skilful bookers stood out from the crowd.

Today’s bookies have the luxury of working with a formed market. This doesn’t mean some don’t use their own skills or take an opinion on a race. This could see them make more money or, if their opinion is wrong, they may increase their losses. Rarely do bookmakers want to take an unnecessary gamble as they’d rather leave that to the punters.

Most bookmakers are keen to make a tight book which sees them minimise losses. However, if the favourite win they are likely to lose on that race. Sooner or later the rag comes in first and it’s a bumper payday.

In truth, bookmakers have made huge profits while others have gone out of business.

What happened to Walter Swinburn?

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On February 9, 2017, an inquest at Westminster Coroner’s Court heard that Walter Robert John Swinburn died on December 12, 2016 after suffering a fatal head injury in a fall from the bathroom window of his maisonette in Belgravia, Central London. He was found, wearing just his underwear, by his father, former Irish champion jockey Walter Robert ‘Wally’ Swinburn, on a courtyard 12 feet below the window but, while police and paramedics attended, he was pronounced.

Swinburn Jnr., a divorced father-of-two, had suffered post-traumatic epilepsy since seriously injured when his mount, Liffey River, cannoned into the running rail shortly after the start of the Alberta Plate at Sha Tin, Hong Kong, throwing him violently to the ground. One that occasion, he was knocked unconscious, broke some ribs and a collar bone, punctured a lung and was in a coma, in intensive care, for four days. The exact circumstances of his death remain a mystery but, returning a verdict of accidental death, Coroner Dr. Shirley Radcliffe said, ‘It seems to me there is little doubt this tragic death was due to an accident.’

Police constable Daniel Scott of the Metroplitan Police, who attended the scene, said, ‘There was no indication of third party involvement.’ Likewise, while Swinburn had been prescribed high doses of anti-convulsant drugs, toxicology reports showed nothing untoward in his system and, according to Dr. Radcliffe, ‘He was clearly not intoxicated.’

Of course, Swinburn will always be best remembered for his association with the ultimately ill-fated Shergar, owned by HH Aga Khan IV and trained by Michael Stoute, in the days before his knighthood. On June 3, 1981, as a lithe 19-year-old – nicknamed ‘The Choirboy’ because of his boyish looks – Swinburn steered the son of Great Nephew to an effortless, 10-length win in the Derby at Epsom. That record-breaking victory became all the more poignant when, in February 1983, Shergar was kidnapped from Ballymany Stud in Co. Kildare by an armed gang and never seen again. He is believed to have fallen victim to the Irish Republican Army (IRA), but no-one has ever claimed resposibility for his kidnapping and his remains have never been found.

Born in Oxford on August 7 1961, Swinburn become apprenticed to trainer Herbert ‘Frenchie’ Nicholson – the father of David Nicholson – straight from school and later to Reg Hollinshead, before becoming stable jockey to Michael Stoute, who, immediately after his death, said, ‘He was

The most amazing natural talent.’ Relatively tall for a Flat jockey, at 5’7″, Swinburn fought the control his weight throughout his career, but, at the time of his eventual retirement from the saddle in 2000, won a total of eight British Classics, including two more Derbies, on Shahrastani in 1986 and Lammtarra in 1995. Other international victories included the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on All Along in 1983 and the Breeders’ Cup Turf on Pilsudski in 1996.

However, as Sir Michael Stoute later said of Swinburn, ‘The big days were what he lived for, and he produced the goods on them on so many occasions.’ Notwithstanding the fact that he was in direct competition with the likes of Lester Piggott, Pat Eddery, Willie Carson and Steve Cauthen, that propensity for the big stage may account, in part, for his failure to become champion jockey. Four years after hanging up his riding boots, in 2004, he took over the training licence from his then father-in-law Peter Harris and, in seven full seasons at the helm at Church Farm in Tring, Hertfordshire sent out over 260 winners. Ironically, Swinburn enjoyed his most successful season as a trainer in 2010, when he saddled 52 winners, but handed in his licence in 2011, when Harris decided to sell his string, thereby rendering the operation financially unviable.