It’s interesting how we assume something as a fact. We don’t question it and that is a mistake. I have a feeling so many racing fans do the same when it comes to draw bias when betting or not on a given horse.
I had a conversation with my brother about this very subject. And I am sure to some extent I have fallen foul of this point. For example, when betting on two-year-old horse racing from a wide draw at Kempton, a turning course, perhaps stall 12 would put me off betting. In fact, horses with wide draws are likely to be much bigger price because they are drawn on the extreme. It seems natural that a horse drawn lower has an advantage. Logically that seems the case and it goes unquestioned. To a point this is correct and data would most likely prove it too. The problem with a wide draw on a turning course, where the turn comes after a couple of furlongs, is that the horse may struggle to get to the lead and worse still if it doesn’t get to the lead it will have to run perhaps four or five horses wide. This is a terrible position to find a horse you have backed and it really is a near hopeless position. The chances of winning are negligible.
But is a wide draw quite the death knell is sounds?
It might not be. Is their a positive to a wide draw? On the face of it there doesn’t seem to be one.
However, both a good and bad draw are two sides to the same coin.
You may be thinking what does that mean.
It is important to consider that winning or losing is much to do with intention. That is the intention of the trainer to win a race. This brings hope even from a wide draw. Because if a horse has a wide draw the trainer knows they will be able to negate the draw and turn it into a positive by getting to the lead. So the wide ‘negative’ may help influence the style of running for a given horse.
I’ve seen horses with wide draws do exactly this, they get to the lead as fast as possible.
With two-year-old horse racing there is a proviso that few debutantes are going to have the experience to achieve this. However, if the horse is on its second start it is a possibility. So the next time you look at a horse you fancy and put off by a wide draw consider this. Could it get to the lead?
Quite often the horse can and does because the trainer and jockey know what they have to do to win.
This can turn what seems to be a negative into a positive.
In addition, it often bring much more value to your bet with regard to increased betting odds. Quite often these horses drift markedly in the betting.
This is sometimes viewed as an additional negative.
Watch a few races and make your own mind up. If anything, it will help you appreciate it isn’t a good idea to just accept general opinion as being true.
Quite often what we consider a fact it is false.