Punters are a funny breed. Some like the National some love their Flat racing. Within both of those code are a plethora of categories. For example, you may bet on plating horses which race in Selling and Claiming races. You may be like my friend Jerry Banks, Lowestoft professional gambler, and stick to betting patter-class horses in black type events. Perhaps you are the bumper specialist and that’s your angle. Each to their own. If you have any sense, you will follow your passion, what makes you tick and have a niche. It is as close as you will get to mastering your expertise. Not one person knows everything to a high level.
Don’t forget that point, Jack.
Most gamblers are frightened of betting on debutantes. That blank slate. ‘How do you pick between the lines of a 20-field maiden comprising solely of debutantes?
This is the funny part. Most gambler think someone who bets on two-year-old horse racing and especially debutantes has lost the plot. They simple cannot know what they are doing. It literally makes no sense at all why someone would favour betting on this type of horse compared with a form horse with proven ability.
Now… I don’t want to be too nasty to any readers who think the same because there is a lot to be said for betting on proven form horses. But what are you going to do if there is a debutante or two in a race you are betting? Perhaps you just stick your head in the sand, like an ostrich, and pretend it doesn’t exist? Just ignore it. Don’t bet because you are worried about it but don’t understand the pros and cons.
See, I enjoy betting on the right debutantes. They can make very good bets if you understand what you are doing.
Here’s the thing. Do you want to have a low barrier to entry or a high one? Everyone knows about the lower entry. It’s routine, everyday, run-of-the-mill. That doesn’t have to be a bad thing. But logically and strategically you want to know a subject which isn’t easy to master. It has a high barrier to entry. That, for the most part, is betting on two-year-old thoroughbred debutantes.
You don’t understand it so you decide it’s weird or wrong or makes no sense.
It’s you lack of knowledge which makes you think that way. It is your limitation that makes you question it. That’s a form of projection.
I’m not saying betting on debutantes is for everyone. You need to learn what it is all about and mater it to get beyond the naivety.
I’m sure I sound nasty when I chat about horse racing but for good reason.
So what are the best ways of assessing a two-year-old debutante horse?
There are a few ways:
Horse Trainer:
Probably the best way of assessing a two-year-old debutante is by horse trainer. It is a fact that certain trainers specialise in winning with debutantes while other either have no juveniles in training or no record or intention of achieving this goal. You may wonder what intention has to do with anything. It has everything to do with everything. Horses don’t win on debut without intention. If you think differently, you don’t know what you are talking about. The likes of Archie Watson train their horses to be fit and ready. There are many others who can win on debut but it is far from easy and compared with the average strike rate of juveniles on their second start much poorer statistically. If you want to understand betting on debutantes you need to understand a trainer first.
Betting:
The betting can be very important to the chance of a debutant winning on its first run. However, for many horses it means nothing at all. You may be thinking well that doesn’t help me much. The point about betting and starting odds relates to the horse trainer. It’s hardly surprising. Certain horse trainers simply cannot win on debut a speculative odds. In fact, some only win when their debutantes are short priced. If you don’t know this information you will be betting blind. In fact, you may be betting on something that literally has no hope of winning. I’d love to be able to give you a list of these trainer/price suggestions. However, I’d be a fool if I did. It’s part of the higher barrier to entry. I haven’t spent thousands of hours learning information to give it away for free. It’s all there waiting for you if you fancy putting in the time. It’s the difference between betting with understand or not. Which do you think pays dividends?
Breeding & Sales price:
Another angle which you here punters and pundits talk about is a well bred horse and its sales price. There is little doubt the best horses have the best breeding and often cost a lot of money if going through the sales ring. However, there is no guarantee that £1M horse will win on debut. In fact, the following year it may be sold for a fraction of the price. There is an incentive for many high-profile breeders to make sure sales prices don’t go down. And in some sense these wealthy individuals don’t lose any sleep when an expensive horse fails to deliver. But there is a correlation between a well bred horse and sales tag compared to those who don’t. Out of the three suggestions I would favour this one least.
Conclusion:
In truth, most punters are scared of betting debutantes for good reason. They don’t understand what they are doing. But there are ways to appreciate the better debutantes but it takes skill. Horse trainers, betting and breeding and sales price all help the novice to become an expert. But with all aspects of gambling, the pursuit of knowledge never comes easy and always at a price.