General

Betting two-year-old race horses can be a tricky business. It’s reason why most punters fear betting on juveniles. In fact, the majority of punters steer clear.

There is one major reason why punters feel betting on debutantes is a bad idea. It’s simply because they don’t understand the subject matter. That’s the reality of the situation.

They say: ‘You’d have to be mad to bet a two-year-old debutante.’

Those comments are based on limitation. It’s hardly surprising. If you don’t put the work into something you read from a blank slate. Each to their own. However, there is an answer to every question. In truth, most things can be understood at a very simple level. That doesn’t mean it is a simple endeavour to get to that point. But if you know enough about any subject you can progress with an approach that is standardised, replicable and measured.

Success or failure can be measured in profit or loss.

Betting on two-year-old debutantes isn’t easy. And, to be fair, unless you know the score you are best to leave well alone. First, put in the work and learn the subject.

Without question, a horse has more chance of winning on its second start compared to its racecourse bow. It’s a statistical fact. True, a few trainers feature a higher strike rate and some do indeed achieve their best results on debut. However, if you are considering a global perspective it pays to consider betting on a horse on its second start is a much wiser decision.

Here are a few problems when betting on debutantes:

• Inexperience can lead to a slow start

• Debutantes often struggle with turning courses

• Trainers rarely want a horse to be given a hard race to wi

• Even the best horses get beaten on debut

• They are often under priced and no value

It is important to appreciate some trainers may run well on debut while others are poor. Also, many horse trainers don’t win at big prices. In fact, many win at short odds only. This is another reason why you need to assess the strength and weakness of each trainer in how they perform.

Horse trainers are creatures of habit.

Betting on debutantes isn’t for the faint-hearted. If you have hopes of making your betting pay then you need to understanding betting on debutantes is difference to any other.

Put in the work and it will pay dividends.

So you like a bet.

There’s nothing wrong with a little flutter. For many, betting at the races adds to the enjoyment. You have even more reason to shout to the rafters when you win a few quid. If you’ve bet on a 50/1 winner you have a day to remember.

Perhaps the best maxim is one my Dad said: ‘Bet what you can afford to lose.’

It’s probably about as wise comment as you get.

Clearly, this relates to discipline.

Perhaps you are Major Stevens and your life revolves around discipline, method and process. You’re the kind of bloke who cleans his shoes before putting them on and returns the polish and brush back in the cupboard under the stairs. Alternatively, you may be devoid of any responsibility or self awareness. There you are polishing your shoes as you wear them, your white socks blackened, you leave the utensils for someone else to put up.

People are different, hey?

It’s surprising how an intelligent person’s brain turns to jelly when they bet. It’s like they’ve had the last few drops of rationality drained from their body.

This is the problem with gambling small change: it’s a gateway to betting more. Without discipline and responsibility it can be a disaster waiting to happen.

I’ve always been concerned about what some call a ‘fun bet’. Losing money shouldn’t be fun but, I guess, it can be an expense worth paying for that rush of dopamine.

If betting fixed odds, such as slots, roulette, blackjack among other games, you will be eternally betting for fun because long term you are guaranteed to lose. The house cut will take its toll on those who are ‘born lucky’.

In truth, skill-based sports offer an opportunity to beat the layer (bookmaker). But it only happens if you have more knowledge. That has nothing to do with luck, fun or whatever you want to fool yourself into thinking.

Consider the expertise of a chess grandmaster. They wouldn’t fear playing just about anyone. Every successful person, skill-based gambler, investor, business owner, sets themselves apart because they are more skilful. They have found the answer to the question. Lots of questions. They have an understanding based on success.

I often go to a horse racing meeting and don’t bet. I’m not sure what percentage of the population does the same but I imagine it is small.

If you have to bet, then bet what you can afford to lose. However, if you have any realistic hope of winning money (luck doesn’t cut much ice) then you need to build your knowledge to be better than most.

If it all seems too much trouble and ‘it’s just a little fun’ then carry on regardless but draw a line in the sand.

Take heed of this advice, don’t bet without discipline because you may well find you have lost more than you bet.

In many ways, the training of thoroughbred horses hasn’t changed much over the years. In its most simplistic form it is about making sure a horse is fit and ready for its intended race. However, in this modern age of horse training, the use of technology and data analysis has become an important tool to gain advantage over the opposition.

My first introduction to the intricacies of this subject matter came to light when travelling via train from Norwich to Great Yarmouth. My brother and I sat next to two gentleman who were connected with horse trainer Richard Spencer, based at Sefton Lodge Stables, Newmarket. I thought one of the men looked familiar and it was racehorse owner Phil Cunningham. Readers may well remember his story with Rebel Racing who have achieved great success with horses such as Cockney Rebel and Rajasinghe.

Anyway, both Phil and his colleague were talking about data analysis for one of their horses saying it had an exceptional stride length, which is often associated with a quality thoroughbred. I’d never thought about this before. However, it was fascinating to learn something new and I found there are other aspects of data analysis which may be used to quantify data.

Data comes in many forms including race times, horse biometrics, track conditions and even genetic information. In addition, tracking variables like stride length, heart rate, and ground reaction forces trainers can tailor work routines for individual horses and maximise capabilities and reduce the risk from injuries.

Data analytics can help predict race outcomes, this uses complex algorithms that go beyond normal handicapping. Moreover, it helps owners, trainers and punters to make more informed decisions.

Other factors include live streaming of sport which allow spectators to immerse themselves in the thrill of the race whether on course or sitting in their living room.

Data analysis and the storage of data has brought about its own concerns regarding accuracy and integrity and the privacy of sensitive information especially genetic data.

Technology and data analytics has brought a new era to the sport of kings. Not only has it enhanced performance, safety and predictive accuracy it also adds to the spectator experience.

Dave Nevison said: ‘He is a Bloody Good Winner.’

In fact, it is the title of his book about years of punting on the horses as a professional gambler. It’s a great read and full of the truths of gambling, humour and the trials and tribulations that working at the rock face reveals.

For many, the ambition of being a professional gambler is a real ambition. But, in truth, it is a difficult although exciting life to live. I’ve read many gambling books and comparing and contrasting their findings. It begs the question: ‘Are all professional horse racing gamblers the same?’

It seems logical to think they are the same. They have found the key to success. But is it the same key? And if we found that secret, would we beat the bookies at their own game?

I’ve read the following professional gambler books from these well known punters:

Dave Nevison

Phil Bull

Alec Bird

Patrick Veitch

Jack Ramsden

Harry Findlay

Barney Curley

To detail one pro gambler let’s consider Phil Bull’s 10 Commandments on successful gambling.

Here are his golden rules:

1. Only bet on selections you consider value-for-money (for Bull this could have even been odds-on shots)

2. Luck, the law of averages and staking plans are delusional, so place no faith in any of them.

3. Bet according to your means and adjust your stake according to the chance of your selection, as you see it; a selection with a greater chance deserves a higher stake.

4. Do not bet each-way in large fields, unless you are satisfied that the place portion of the bet represents value-for-money.

5. Shop around with bookmakers and the Tote to find the best prices, according to your judgment.

6. Do not bet ante-post unless you know your selection is a definite runner.

7. Do not buy systems; if you come across a profitable system, keep it to yourself.

8. Bet in doubles and trebles if you want to, but not on objections.

9. Make wise, attentive betting decisions and adopt a patient, cautious approach to betting, but do not be afraid to be bold if circumstances dictate.

10. Bet only what you can afford to lose; increasing stakes beyond your means, even in the short-term, can lead to catastrophic losses.

 

Interesting points.

But are all pro gambler singing from the same hymn sheet or have the same gambling philosophy?

The quick answer is ‘No’.

In fact, the first thing you notice is that very few pro gamblers follow a similar approach. Obviously, there are a few foundational similarities but personally they are a contradictory group of people.

I’d love to gather a few of the biggest names in gambling and see where the conversation went and what was said. I’m pretty sure it wouldn’t take long before each looked at the other and muttering to themselves: ‘That bloke hasn’t got a clue what he’s talking about. How on earth did he make any money gambling?’

‘Loser!’

As a gambler myself, I have thought the same.

I think what we can take from such difference is that our nurturing as a gambler finds its own route via success or failure. In that sense, winners dictate your betting approach, process and method. It isn’t a bad thing. There is no proven route to gambling on the horses, your staking plan, bets and anything you can imagine.

Don’t limit others in the sense that they may have a very different approach to you. In reality you should only measure your success or failure compared with yourself. It is pointless comparing your self to others although it is human nature to do so but far from productive.

The thing about successful gambling is that all roads can lead to Rome. You don’t need to question others to the tenth degree. Someone is making their betting pay because they have taken the time to find answers to questions.

Winning at gambling is about finding answers to questions.

As Tony Bloom said: ‘We answer the most interesting questions in sport.’

And that is, basically, the answer to the question of being a successful gambler.

Knowledge.