Horses

Of course, it is the ‘connections’ of thoroughbred racehorses or, in other words, the owners and trainers thereof, who ultimately decide in which specific races their horses compete. As far as ownership is concerned, a horse can race in the name of an individual, a partnership, a company, a syndicate or a racing club. Syndicates and racing clubs are forms of shared ownership, which offer members the opportunity to own, or lease, an interest in a horse or horses. Either way, the initial purchase of a thoroughbred racehorse is typically around £15,000, but can, of course range up to hundreds of thousands or millions of pounds.

Of course, even a monumental investment is, by no means, a guarantee of success. Indeed, one of the biggest ‘flops’ of modern times, The Green Monkey, was sold for a world record price of $16 million back in 2006, but was placed just once from three starts in minor company and recouped just £5,327 of his purchase price in prize money. Furthermore, owners are also faced with annual training, veterinary care and other costs, which, according to the British Horseracing Authority (BHA), can amount to up to £23,000.

Thoroughbred racehorse trainers, on the other hand, a responsible for working out daily training programmes specific to the needs of each horse in their care, monitoring the development of each horse and assessing its potential. Thus, trainers colloborate with owners to strategise race plans for each horse. That said, not every horse is eligible to run in every race; factors that detemine into which races a horse can legitimately be entered include age, sex, experience and, of course, perceived ability, which is represented, numerically, by a handicap rating, allotted by a team of handicappers at the BHA. ‘Juvenile’ races on the Flat, for example, are restricted to two-year-old horses, while ‘maiden’ races are restricted to horses that have never won a race.

Generally speaking, a horse must race at least three times to achieve an initial handicap rating and, once it has done so, it is, as the name suggests, eligible to run in handicap races. Indeed, in Britain, most horses run in handicap races for the majority of their careers. After each race, each horse is assessed by the team of handicappers and its official handicap rating may increase, decrease or stay the same, depending on its perceived level of performance. Different ‘classes’ of handicap exist, graded from Class 2 – which includes valuable, historic races such as the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot – to Class 7, according to the ratings band of horses who can compete.

Thus, the official handicap rating of each horse effectively determines in which races it can, and should compete. However, on the Flat, once a horse has achieved an official handicap rating higher than 110 it is no longer eligible to run in handicaps at all. It has to compete, instead, in conditions, classified, Listed or Pattern races, which, in the case of the latter, include Group 1, Group 2 and Group 3 races. At the other end of the ratings scale, selling and claiming races are available to horses of modest ability.

One of the stated aims of the BHA Racing Department is to ensure ‘that horses are catered for broadly in accordance with ability over their entire careers’. Thus, the conditions for individual races are drawn up Clerks of the Course, more often than not following consulation with the Department. Furthermore, all race programmes must comply with BHA General Instructions (BHAGI), with regard to minimum requirements for races to be included, which are then published weekly on the Racing Calendar.

At first glance this may seem a strange question. However, if you have any understanding of two-year-old horse racing it should capture your attention. You may say why? Well, if you want to make your betting pay these kind of questions needs answers. Perhaps you think horses simply win in a random nature. In some respects they do. However, there is good reason to appreciate why a horse may when in any given race. If you are interested in a horse winning let’s say a maiden race on its 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th or 5^th race it is a positive to have some understanding and how and why this may happen.

Considering two-year-old horses start as a blank slate when it comes to form they are a different kettle of fish to older horses (clearly, older horses may be making their debut too but in general they are different to the juveniles).

The chance of a two-year-old winning is very much to do with the horse owner, trainer, breeding, betting and other factors and variables. One thing you can guarantee is that if a horse doesn’t have the intention of winning on debut (or any time for that matter) it is very unlikely they will win. It’s not impossible as trainers do say they were surprised their horse won but compared to those who think their horse has a live chance the numbers are small.

Two-year-old horses by their nature are inexperienced and due to their date of birth mature at different rates. This has a biological underpinning too.

However, if you had to consider the most likely time a two-year-old horse is going to win what would you say?

Many of you would say a decent juvenile should win on debut. And to a point that is true. Logically a horse that has a level of ability should be able to win on its racecourse bow. However, it may well be opposing horses with experience and this makes life a little harder. Inexperience can prove costly for debutantes and reason why it can be a difficult time for them to win. I would suggest it has as much to do with the opponents in the race as the ability of the debutante itself. If a horse starts slowly it can be very difficult for them to make up ground especially over a sprint distance. Also, a trainer may well instruct the jockey to give the horse a nice introduction. They don’t want to frighten the horse or put it off racing which can happen more easily than you think. For these reasons first time out is a fair opportunity for a horse to win but not the most likely day.

In my opinion, the best time for a two-year-old horse to win is second start. From my statistical work it is a fact. Clearly, again, this does vary from horse trainer to trainer. However, with the initial experience on debut a horse is generally fitter, wiser and placed to give a good account of itself. Also, the intention is to win. The jockey will be told to make every effort to win and if its a close finish they will be determined to the line. If you are betting blind, with no interest in form or betting price (which is unwise) you would have some hope of finding a winner on the horse’s second start compared with others.

Remember we are talking about horses winning maiden race or more precisely non handicaps. For many two-year-olds of limited ability their best option is to race in a nursery. This is where horses are allotted a weight for their perceived ability and they run in that category. For example, a horse may be given an official rating of 60. It is allowed to run in a race 0 – 60 (if can run in a higher grade race). This restricts the competition as a horse rated over 60 wouldn’t be illegible to race in this class. Basically, this gives lesser class horses a chance to win. No owner would be interested in owning a horse if it was impossible to win.

So we have to consider that a lesser class horse is unlikely to win a maiden in its first few starts as the competition is stiff. In addition, it must race at least three times in a maiden for the official handicapper to observe the horse and be able to give it a handicap mark. Sometimes the horse will have to run four times.

Most two-year-old horses will be run on their merit. The more cynical race fan would suggest many juveniles are not trying so they are given a low handicap mark.

Two-year-olds running on their third and fourth start are less likely to win than first and second start. This is mainly detailed in the fact they couldn’t win on those earlier starts. So in ways, the more races a horse takes to win a maiden race the less chance they have of winning. If a horse has been in a few competitive races it may have been unlucky and take advantage when it finds a weaker race. For this reason, horses which are priced at shorter odds have an increased chance of winning compared to those at bigger odds. Yes, I know that sound stupidly logical but there is slightly more to that last comment than meets the eyes.

Most horses which haven’t won a maiden on their first four starts will be heading to nursery races to take advantage of a lower category of racing.

To appreciate the chance of any horse winning it needs to be assessed as an individual and on its merits. It wouldn’t make sense to generally view a two-year-old on its second start as the reason to bet disregarding other factors. However, it would be a mistake no to appreciate that if a horse is likely to win in its career its second start is of interest.

The first thing to say about the history of Timeform, as far as National Hunt racing is concerned, is that it dates back only to 1962, when the weekly Timeform Black Book in that domain was first published. Indeed, the ‘Chasers & Hurdlers’ annual, which included Timeform commentaries and ratings for every horse that ran over jumps in Britain the previous season, did not appear until 1976.

However, the six and a bit decades of the ‘Timeform era’ are plenty long enough to identify the top three jumping mares of modern times. In fact, the Halifax-based organisation takes pride in the consistency of its ratings, which are specifically designed to allow comparison between horses from different generations, so its findings make fascinating reading.

Few would argue, for example, that Dawn Run, who remains the only horse, of either sex, in history – Timeform or otherwise – to win both the Champion Hurdle and the Cheltenham Gold Cup, fully deserves her position atop the all-time list. Owned by Mrs. Charmian Hill and trained by Paddy Mullins, father of 17-times Irish Champion National Hunt Trainer Willie Mullins, Dawn Run won 21 of her 35 starts and, in so doing, achieved a Timeform Annual Rating of 173 over hurdles and 167 over fences.

Ridden by Jonjo O’Neill, Dawn Run justified odds-on favouritism in the Champion Hurdle in 1984, when any challenge from her nearest market rival, Desert Orchid, failed to materialise. Two years later, reunited with O’Neill for the first time since, she belied her inexperience over fences by justifying favouritism in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, courtesy of a last-gasp victory over the veteran Wayward Lad. Dawn Run also remains the only horse to have won the Champion Hurdle, Irish Champion Hurdle and Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil (a.k.a. the French Champion Hurdle) in the same season..

Perhaps less heralded than the history-making Dawn Run, the mare in second place on the all-time list, Anaglogs Daughter, has the distinction of being the highest-rated of her sex to race over fences in the history of Timeform. Bred for the Flat, the daughter of Above Suspicion out of Anaglog, by Will Sommers, won three times in that sphere before her attention was turned to jumping obstacles. However, it was following her transfer trainer Bill Durkan – although Ferdy Murphy is generally credited with her preparation – that she began to climb through the ranks of the steeplechasing division.

All told, Anaglogs Daughter won 15 of her 64 starts over obstacles, including the Arkle Challenge Trophy at the 1980 Cheltenham Festival, all at distances up to two and a half mile, and achieved a Timeform Annual Rating of 171 over fences. At the 1981 Cheltenham Festival, she was sent off 10/11 favourite for the Queen Mother Champion Chase, despite a last-minute injury, which placed her participation in doubt; she was headed on the approach to the final fence and finally went down by 7 lengths to the largely unconsidered 25/1 chance Drungora.

Third on the all-time list, according to Timeform, comes Annie Power, who achieved a rating of 170+ over hurdles (with the ‘+’ indicating that she may have been ‘rather better’ than her bare rating). Owned by Susannah Ricci and trained by Willie Mullins, for all bar her first two starts, the daughter of Breeders’ Cup Turf and Coronation Cup winner Shirocco tasted defeat just twice in her 17-race career. She was beaten favourite (although beaten just 1½ lengths) in the World Hurdle at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival and, again, when a last-flight faller in the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle the following year. Nevertheless, she returned to Prestbury Park in 2016, justifying favouritism in the Champion Hurdle and thereby becoming just the fourth mare in history to win the two-mile hurdling championship.