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In psychology, they say it takes 10,000 hours to become an expert in something. If that’s true, what title is given to someone who goes beyond the expert status? I guess in the medical profession it would be a consultant. In business a guru. I remember the politicians had a drugs czar. I’m not sure if that policy was to prohibit or encourage. But joking aside, the concept of value is very much subjective because all winning horses are by their very nature that elusive word. The hope that you have found value. It comes to fruition or shatters like a stone.

It’s a stupid question: ‘But what kind of price would you bet?’

However, you will find that most gamblers are creature of habit. They consciously or unconsciously do the same thing, back the same horses, trainers to the point of their ideal betting odds.

My Uncle Gordon was a favourites man. I don’t know why. I’m sure if I had asked him he would have told me his story. It would have been interesting to listen, learn and understand. I very much doubt he made money on gambling but only he knows the answer to that question. I hope for his sake he did. In truth, there is no right or wrong about many things in life. And so often nothing is as it seems.

From studying hundreds of horse trainers in my niche of two-year-old horse racing I have a good understanding of the global and specific. Quantitative and qualitative research and data. You cannot impose your views on the data at hand. It can only be viewed, or should be, objectively. Although data doesn’t always tell the true story of anything. It is a moment in time that reflects past and tantalises to tell what the future may hold. In psychology the data analysis would look for statistical significance. In layman’s terms as near to a fact as you can get. From my decades of research I have no doubt data can help detail value bets. However, remember the theory in psychology about the black swan. In the 16^th century and before, it was presumed that black swans didn’t exist until they were discovered in Australia in 1697. What I mean by this quote is that even though a given horse trainer may not have had a horse win above a certain price it doesn’t mean in cannot happen. Any horse can defy the stats.

My perspective on value is that I set the price I want to take rather than dictated by the supposed chance of the best horse in the race. This can often detail the favourite which may be priced at short odds. I would say to anyone, if you can make your betting pay you don’t need me to tell you the facts. There are a million and one ways to make money and to the unknowing they seem alien. ‘How can that work?’

How did someone walk on the moon and punters backed it at 1000/1?

How is it the Loch Ness Monster was as short as 6/1 to exist?

I guess both lots of punters thought they had value until the cow jumped over the moon!

The strength and luxury of being a gambler, in search of value, is that you can set the price you wager. What price do you consider value? Once again, it seems a strange if not open-ended question. But if you don’t make a decision about this variable how can you put it into practice. Surely if you are not in control of your decision someone else is and that is a daunting prospect. If you are manipulated by someone else, a layer, you can guarantee that isn’t for your benefit.

People are often surprised when I say I rarely bet on a horse at less than double-figure odds. You can see it in their face and eyes. An expression of surprise and wonder. They jump to the conclusion of madness or brilliance. It’s a query that sticks in their mind.

Opinions are just that and should never build ego or add to demise.

As far as I know, most people bet with their own money.

You do need to ask anyone’s opinion unless you do, of course.

So why do I bet at double-figure odds? Simply because I know at those prices I am more likely to have value simply because year on year I am in profit. Also, just because I bet at substantial odds it doesn’t mean the horse isn’t much shorter prices by the time the starting price is revealed – which details value in itself.

If you bet at odds of 20/1, you need a 5% win rate to break even. And even money shot you need 50%.

Clearly, the difference between success and failure, profit and loss, is to do with your skill rather than luck. As I say: ‘Skill comes before money.’

It is skill which imparts the possibility of value in your bets.

It is important you are in control of your betting and that includes the price of horses you bet. I’m not saying you cannot bet at shorter odds because that is another sign of a competent gambler that they know when to break their rules. However, you need to consider what value means and also what it means to you.

The business maxim Keep It Simple Stupid (KISS) is apt for the professional gambler. The difficulty with knowledge and understanding is learning the most complex things and then making them simplistic in process.

It is no easy endeavour.

It is the reason why the transition from would-be professional gambler to those who are seasoned is a long road. You have to learn all the information. This is either through a mentor or most likely by your own resolve. A journey of trial and error. Endless frustration. Difficulties, too many to put into words. Finding answers to questions. The best answers. Polishing the stone until it shines brightly with the knowledge you gleaned.

Then you have to stuff all the knowledge into a small simplistic schema. A unit of knowledge.

If you cannot boil down your information into systems of operations you are going to struggle. You need simplicity to work in a productive and efficient manner. Also, you need to work within a routine with discipline that is engaging and mostly enjoyable. You don’t want to feel you are wrestling with an unruly polar bear. It’s too much of a beast to fight and it will tire you quickly and you will either give up or it will kill you. Ultimately, you will be lost. You lose the ‘game’ you wanted to play to win. Never forget knowledge comes before money.

Most punters don’t reach the point of understanding the wealth of knowledge needed and putting it in the boxes to use with efficiency and productivity. Basically, doing the right things with discipline to make your betting pay. Most people gamble in such a haphazard fashion they couldn’t even explain what they do or how it works. Perhaps it doesn’t seem a problem but the day will come when it is. If you have any hope of progressing to a higher level you need to think about these things now. Nothing is easy. You don’t want it to be easy. Why? Because you want to create the highest barrier to entry. That five-foot wall does stop anyone from entering your secret garden. If you have a moat with a few shark swimming around and a thousand-foot wall then it’s a different story. Make the truly complex simplistic to use. Else, it with trip you up.

That’s the importance of simplicity, rules and guidelines.

I would question any professional gambler who likes to bet on a multitude of sports. If it works for you, then good. Carry on as it’s making you money. However, if you focused on the best niche how much better would you be? There isn’t the time or energy to do everything. And the biggest pointer is that you don’t need to spread yourself too thin.

The best people often have one product to sell.

You can double your profit by doubling your stake. You saved half the work in one second by thinking differently.

It’s interesting how you can make the complex simple. Look at Albert Einstein’s E=mc2. Every day for 10 years he thought about the riddle (1895 – 1905).

We don’t remember the full equation but we do the simplistic form and it serves its purpose well.

There simply isn’t enough time or energy to question and re-question everything you do on a daily basis. You need to have the answer to the question so you just work in an efficient manner. It is tiring and pointless to do it any other way. You may say: ‘I want to work in a more fluid form.’ That’s your decision. But how can you measure or replicate such an approach? You simply cannot.

When working out your systems of operation you need to consider what you want your working life to be. It has to be your decision else it is someone else’s. That means you are being manipulated by someone. I can guarantee that isn’t for your benefit. When gambling, someone will be using that against you and it will cost you time and money.

How many hours do you want to work each week? It will be a compromise but you need it to be your decision. How much money do you have in mind to win this year? What do you need to do to make it happen?

Simplicity is needed in any working routine. All the best people and business work in this manner for a reason.

Stop, think and assess your understanding of horse racing from a knowledge base to making money within a perspective which makes you happy.

There are no right or wrong answers on many fronts but you still need to have an answer to your questions.

Simplicity, rules and guidelines may sound boring and a long way from the final furlong at Cheltenham. But they are more important than the winner of any single race.

How many times have you bet on a horse convinced it will be backed?

For many gamblers and traders alike, this is the way they make money. I’m sure there are plenty of traders who have methods which proves successful, stealing a fraction of a point often with bots which work faster than humans.

I often say the only sure way you know if a horse is going to be substantially backed is because you know someone intended to lump on. This information isn’t going to be known by many if any for obvious reasons. So your average gambler is left with the quandary when should I bet with hope of finding value but fearful of betting and seeing their selection drift to double the odds or worse. We’ve all had the good and bad side of the coin. It’s a strange one as sometimes I have been convinced a horse is a value bet at 10/1. Keen not to miss the price I bet and to my frustration I see it drift to double the odds.

Not good.

And the converse, a horse I literally give no chance is hammered down in the odds and starts a short priced favourite.

Have you been left feeling there is no real answer to the question?

If I knew the full answer to this question I would be a very rich man. Sadly, I don’t so I am left with doing the best I can with the information I have.

Here are a few ideas.

1) Following The Market

Traders will be familiar with this approach as it often leads to decent bets or trades. Basically, you watch the market and if the money comes you jump in and place a bet and hope the horse is continually backed to exit with a profit or lay your stake for a no lose bet and hope the horse wins. Layers will do the same if they see a horse drifting substantially in the market. This often happens in the last few minute preceding the start. The aim of both trades/bets is not to be caught at the extremes when the market turns as you could be left with a loss if bailing out. I often use this approach to take advantage of layers when pushing a horse to extreme odds which can make a very good value bet. Sometimes these extreme drifters are a sign that someone knows the horse simply won’t perform (for whatever reason) but not always. In fact, they can make great bets.

2) Using Statistics

Data and statistics can help you predict the markets in many ways and be used as a good foundation. For instance, within two-year-old horse racing, which I have lots of data, we may look at john Gosden and see that over half of all his debutantes start at betting odds of 13/2 and less starting price (sp). If we see a horse at bigger odds we can presume that it may well be backed into a shorter price. Clearly, this is a risky move as the horse may simply be poor and won’t be backed and may even drift to a giant price. For this approach to work you need to have information that tells you the horse has ability. I have a number of ways to help predict this but, as usual, its not in my interests to detail this here. However, you will note many trainer’s horses are backed in line with their basic statistics and it is a realistic approach to finding value bets.

3) Horse Owners

Many punters follow horse trainers but it can also pay to follow horse owners. I’m not talking about the likes of Godolphin but some of the high-profile owners who slip under the radar especially some of those who are selective. By this I mean, certain owners simply don’t allow a poor horse to race and that means they generally race juveniles that are likely to achieve a winning standard of ability. This understanding and knowledge is worth its weight in gold. Take a look at a few owners and see their statistics. Many have over 50% win and place rate for their two-year-olds for this very selective reason. To add to the hopes many of these horses are priced at speculative odds. It pays to do your homework and have a shortlist of owners who are up tot he winning mark. They are worthy of your time.

These three methods may seem something and nothing but they help appreciate there are plenty of opportunities to know something more than most and when it comes to gambling that can often be the difference between winning and losing money.

Some people would say there is never a good time to bet on a debutante horse.

To be honest, if that is your answer you may have had your fingers burned a time or two and if you decided not to bet I wouldn’t blame you. There is no doubt betting on debutantes is hard work and a very tricky betting medium. Without expert insight you are chancing your luck and to make money gambling you can’t rely on your four-leafed clover.

In the early part of the two-year-old season the advantage, if you can call it that, is most horses are debutantes. This is a changing scene as the season progresses and in the latter part of the season debutantes face a stiffer task. However, betting on two-year-old race horses isn’t all bad news. With that comes a proviso, you need to do your homework first.

There are two categories of debutante: Easy winners or poor losers. You don’t want to be betting on the latter because they are very frustrating. Even after 30-years experience of betting juveniles it is hard work. When it comes to horses on their racecourse bow you need to have an in depth understanding of horse trainers. It is a major factor why a horse is likely to win or not. You may wonder why but some two-year-old horse trainers simply do not win with debutantes. Some haven’t had a single debut winner for years from a large sample of horses. Clearly, this should ring alarm bells and make you tread careful. If you don’t know the trainer you don’t know the horse. It is as simple as that. Also, it is imperative you understand when a trainer hits form and try to anticipate this happening. You may say: ‘Well, how am I going to know that?’ Trainers are very much creatures of habit and they follow a set pattern. Don’t believe me, then you go and look at the data and you will soon appreciate the facts. I’ve studied the data for many trainers and month by month they have contrasting results. For example, some trainer win with debutantes at the start of the season while other later. I’ve noted certain trainers who have never had a debut winner in certain months and that covers runners over a decade. For obvious reasons you don’t want to be betting on one of those. The key point is you need to know this information rather than betting blind. This information isn’t freely available so you are pushing your luck if betting without being informed.

In truth, betting on two-year-old debutantes isn’t for everyone. Even a seasoned gambler is likely to fall short. The problem for most talented juveniles, which you may hear about, is that many are so inexperienced they simply cannot do themselves justice. Also, in the early part of the season when racing over the minimum trip (usually taking no more than 60 seconds to race) a slow start can be a great leveller for even a horse which, in time, will be a standout. That’s the nature of the beast – two-year-old horse racing.

Unless you are very confident in your understanding of this niche you are better to simply watch and learn. From a statistical point of view, two-year-old horses have their best chance of winning second start.

At least when a horse has form you can assess it better. If you are judging a horse on its breeding, ownership or trainer you may get the wrong end of the stick. As with all gambling, knowledge comes before money. Simple words but true. If you don’t have good reason to bet you are best to keep your money in your pocket.

Always gamble responsibly.