In psychology, they say it takes 10,000 hours to become an expert in something. If that’s true, what title is given to someone who goes beyond the expert status? I guess in the medical profession it would be a consultant. In business a guru. I remember the politicians had a drugs czar. I’m not sure if that policy was to prohibit or encourage. But joking aside, the concept of value is very much subjective because all winning horses are by their very nature that elusive word. The hope that you have found value. It comes to fruition or shatters like a stone.
It’s a stupid question: ‘But what kind of price would you bet?’
However, you will find that most gamblers are creature of habit. They consciously or unconsciously do the same thing, back the same horses, trainers to the point of their ideal betting odds.
My Uncle Gordon was a favourites man. I don’t know why. I’m sure if I had asked him he would have told me his story. It would have been interesting to listen, learn and understand. I very much doubt he made money on gambling but only he knows the answer to that question. I hope for his sake he did. In truth, there is no right or wrong about many things in life. And so often nothing is as it seems.
From studying hundreds of horse trainers in my niche of two-year-old horse racing I have a good understanding of the global and specific. Quantitative and qualitative research and data. You cannot impose your views on the data at hand. It can only be viewed, or should be, objectively. Although data doesn’t always tell the true story of anything. It is a moment in time that reflects past and tantalises to tell what the future may hold. In psychology the data analysis would look for statistical significance. In layman’s terms as near to a fact as you can get. From my decades of research I have no doubt data can help detail value bets. However, remember the theory in psychology about the black swan. In the 16th century and before, it was presumed that black swans didn’t exist until they were discovered in Australia in 1697. What I mean by this quote is that even though a given horse trainer may not have had a horse win above a certain price it doesn’t mean in cannot happen. Any horse can defy the stats.
My perspective on value is that I set the price I want to take rather than dictated by the supposed chance of the best horse in the race. This can often detail the favourite which may be priced at short odds. I would say to anyone, if you can make your betting pay you don’t need me to tell you the facts. There are a million and one ways to make money and to the unknowing they seem alien. ‘How can that work?’
How did someone walk on the moon and punters backed it at 1000/1?
How is it the Loch Ness Monster was as short as 6/1 to exist?
I guess both lots of punters thought they had value until the cow jumped over the moon!
The strength and luxury of being a gambler, in search of value, is that you can set the price you wager. What price do you consider value? Once again, it seems a strange if not open-ended question. But if you don’t make a decision about this variable how can you put it into practice. Surely if you are not in control of your decision someone else is and that is a daunting prospect. If you are manipulated by someone else, a layer, you can guarantee that isn’t for your benefit.
People are often surprised when I say I rarely bet on a horse at less than double-figure odds. You can see it in their face and eyes. An expression of surprise and wonder. They jump to the conclusion of madness or brilliance. It’s a query that sticks in their mind.
Opinions are just that and should never build ego or add to demise.
As far as I know, most people bet with their own money.
You do need to ask anyone’s opinion unless you do, of course.
So why do I bet at double-figure odds? Simply because I know at those prices I am more likely to have value simply because year on year I am in profit. Also, just because I bet at substantial odds it doesn’t mean the horse isn’t much shorter prices by the time the starting price is revealed – which details value in itself.
If you bet at odds of 20/1, you need a 5% win rate to break even. And even money shot you need 50%.
Clearly, the difference between success and failure, profit and loss, is to do with your skill rather than luck. As I say: ‘Skill comes before money.’
It is skill which imparts the possibility of value in your bets.
It is important you are in control of your betting and that includes the price of horses you bet. I’m not saying you cannot bet at shorter odds because that is another sign of a competent gambler that they know when to break their rules. However, you need to consider what value means and also what it means to you.