David

Racing answers on the HorseQ site are provided by our writer and published lifelong horse racing fan, David Dunning. Having been previously published in Best of British magazine and others, David’s ability to capture the history and excitement of the sport of kings is near unrivalled. With an interest in many sports but a specific love and focus on horse racing, there’s no better person to ask your racing questions to than this man. From the basics to technical, history of the sport to comic or interesting facts, it’s all here. Send in a question if it stands out it may well appear on the site! With questions and answers on beloved horses (Red Rum, Arkle and the like), jockeys, trainers, owners and of course races and festivals (the Grand National, Cheltenham Festival and much more besides) there’s fascinating facts and trivia aplenty for both casual and dedicated followers of the sport. At the bottom of each Q&A post there’s further suggested posts to read, so there’s no shortage of questions to quiz yourself or your equine loving friends with.

Is betting on the Favourite for Losers?

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So you fancy a bet.

As long as you bet responsibly then a little flutter isn’t going to do you much harm. In fact, you may pick a winner. For most punters betting with any aspect of skill is unlikely. Why? Because unless you work tirelessly at your craft you are unlikely to win anything. I don’t advise betting for fun. There’s nothing fun about losing money. If that’s acceptable, then you should question what you are doing.

If betting, you may want to appreciate a few pointers which I have considered long and hard.

Why Betting On The Favourite is a bad idea

Unsurprisingly, the majority of the money bet on a horse race is on the favourite. In fact, on an odds-on shot, it is probably 80% of all the money bet. But with the favourite being such a popular choice is it really worth a bet? The answer is probably no. To be fair, each and every horse can only be judged on its merits. I would be wrong to say that a decent percentages of favourite don’t win and, by their very nature, a winner is value. However, if you bet on every favourite you would lose money. This points to the fact that the only way you can win at betting is related to skill. It isn’t so much about money but your knowledge. This is the foundation to your success. Betting on a favourite in a horse race denotes the strike rate you need to break even or be in profit. Betting even money requires a 50% win rate to break even. From my vast data research and analysis, very few horses, trainers, jockeys or owners detail such a high strike rate.

Why You Need More Value Bets

Betting on favourites can be a distraction to betting on a big priced winner. For that reason, I don’t bet on any horses less than 7/1. You may be reading this and thinking how is this possible. I tell people and they look surprised. I can tell in that moment they are favourite backers. Nothing wrong with that. If you are in profit, you don’t need to listen to my words. If you are losing money you do. Now, this article isn’t going to tell you all you need to know how to win money gambling. You would need to start from a blank slate, learn lots over years and be as disciplined as it takes. There are no short cuts to success. But what I would say is draw the line closer to the bigger odds horses. The more you understand, the more you realise you don’t need to be betting at short odds. In fact, I rarely bet on horses that are not double-figure odds. If that sounds incredible then it is simply do to your lack of skills and understanding of seeing the full, bigger, picture.

How Do You See The Bigger Picture?

You see the bigger picture by looking at the smaller picture. No one can know everything. Wisdom states you don’t need to know everything. You need to know a little more than most. Know your niche. If you are a gambler and you bet on many different sports then you are spreading yourself too thin. In fact, you could do half the work and increased your profit substantially by simply betting more money. If you measure your success by financial return. You may follow horse racing for fun and bet matchsticks. Knowing less better is the answer to the question.

Answers to Questions

Being successful at anything is about knowing answers to questions. If you don’t know the answer to a,b,c then you need to ask yourself why. Why is the motivation of behaviour. If you can’t be bothered to understand your subject matter, hone your skills and learn what it takes to make your betting pay, then either carry on losing or stop betting.

Whatever you do, unless you know better, don’t bet on the favourite.

It’s a good place to start.

How many winners has controversial jockey Dylan Kitts ridden?

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For readers unfamiliar with the name, Dylan Kitts is a 22-year-old conditional jockey attached to the Rhonehurst yard of Warren Greatrex in Upper Lambourn, Hungerford, who, in recent months, has been making headlines for the wrong reasons.

In May, 2023, he was banned from riding for 14 days by local stewards for failing to achieve the best possible placing on his mount, Jet Of Dreams, trained by Greatrex, who finished second in a maiden hurdle at Warwick. On that occasion, the in-running comment in the ‘Racing Post’ read, ‘Held up in rear, headway 3 out, soon nudged along, went third but hung left after 2 out, went second final 110yds, no match for winner, eyecatcher’. Greatrex, nonetheless, defended Kitts, saying, ‘In my opinion, he’s ridden that horse like a mature rider and he’s done what I’ve told him to do…He [Kitts] felt he was hanging and was making a [respiratory] noise, which he’s done in the past.’

However, in July, 2023, Kitts was embroiled in further controversy his riding of Hillsin, trained by Chris Honour, who finished third, beaten just 1¼ lengths in a conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle at Worcester. Once again, the in-running comment in the ‘Racing Post’ was fairly damning, reading, ‘Held up in rear, headway 6th, in touch with leaders after 4 out, going easily but tenderly handled home straight, lost ground 3 out, stayed on and went third run-in, eyecatcher’. Kitts reportedly told local stewards that the gelding had made ‘ a respiratory noise towards the end of the back straight which continued on several more occasions throughout the race’ and ‘also hung badly right-handed’, but Hillsin was suspended from running for 40 days and his jockey referred to the British Horseracing Authority (BHA).

In happier times, Kitts, who claims a weight allowance of 7lb when riding against fully-fledged professionals, has taken 94 rides and ridden 11 winners, seven for Warren Greatrex and four for Herefordshire trainer Tom Lacey. His most recent victory came on Sageburg County, trained by Greatrex, in a handicap chase at Market Rasen on May 12, 2023.

Since 2000, how many British champion apprentices have become champion jockey?

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Of course, since 2015, the British Flat season has been truncated, at least as far as the Flat Jockeys’ Championship and Apprentice Jockeys’ Championship are concerned, such that it runs from the Guineas Festival at Newmarket in early May to British Champions Day at Ascot in October. Both championships are decided, as they always have been, on the number of winners ridden in the designated period, albeit nowadays over a period of approximately 24 weeks, rather than the previous 32.

Since the turn of the twenty-first century, a total of four British champion apprentices, including one joint champion, have subsequently become champion jockey. In 2002, in his fourth year as apprentice to Richard Fahey in Musley Bank, near Malton, North Yorkshire, Paul Hanagan became champion apprentice with 81 winners, just half a dozen shy of the post-war record set by Lee Newman two years earlier. Having saddled Vintage Premium to a narrow victory in the John Smith’s Cup at York, under Hanagan, Fahey said prophetically, ‘If this boy is not champion jockey one day I will give up the game.’ Well, Hanagan was (champion jockey), twice, in 2010 and 2011, and Fahey didn’t (give up).

In 2003, Ryan Moore won the apprentices’ title with a relatively modest total of 52 winners, but went on to become champion jockey three times, in 2006, 2008 and 2009. In 2008, William Buick and David Probert, both apprenticed to Andrew Balding at Park House Stables in Kingsclere, Hampshire, shared the title with 50 winners apiece. After finishing runner-up to Oisin Murphy in 2020 and 2021, Buick finally became champion jockey in 2022. He currently leads the 2023 title race by 27 winners from his nearest rival, Tom Marquand, with less than a month of the season remaining and is long odds-on to retain his title. Murphy, too, was apprenticed to Andrew Balding when he won the title in 2014 and, notwithstanding a ‘troubled’ career since, became champion jockey three years running, in 2019, 2020 and 2021.

Is there really a beat called a ‘Bookies’ Nightmare’?

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The short answer is yes, there is. Nowadays, most bookmakers settle bets using automated computer systems, which provide faster, more accurate results than traditional human settlers, so the bet is less ‘nightmarish’ than was once the case, but it is still trying enough, not least because of the number of disparate bets involved. Generally speaking, the Bookies’ Nightmare is not an option you’ll see listed with online bookmakers, so you may find it’s a rigamarole to place, never mind settle!

The Bookies’ Nightmare consists of 47 individual bets, staked on nine, unrelated selections, which are arranged into two Patents, two Yankees, one Round Robin and one, rather speculative, nine-fold accumulator. A Patent, of course, consists of three singles, three doubles and a treble, making seven bets in all, while a Yankee consists of six doubles, four trebles and a four-fold accumulator, making 11 bets. Thus, staking two Patents, on selections 1, 2 and 3 and selections 7, 8 and 9, respectively, plus two Yankees, on selections 1, 2, 3 and 4 and selections 5, 6, 7 and 8, respectively, constitutes 7 + 7 + 11 + 11 = 36 bets.

The remaining 11 constituent bets comprise a Round Robin on selections 4, 5 and 6 and a nine-fold accumulator on selections 1-9. The latter is self-explanatory but, for readers unfamiliar with the structure of the bet, the Round Robin is similar to a Patent, insofar as it includes three doubles and a treble on three selections, but also three pairs of single stakes about bets, a.k.a. up-and-down bets or cross bets, making 10 bets in all. Essentially, any return on each single, up to the original unit stake, is used to fund a further single on the other selection in the pair; clearly, the further single is conditional on a return from the first one.