Horse racing punters often talk about finding value. In essence, the odds you bet on a given horse are greater than its actual chance of winning. So you bet on Gee Up Neddy at 7/1 when its actual real chance of winning is 5/1. In truth, every winning horse is value. Every losing horse is poor value. That’s if you are betting a straight win. The theory is the same for all bets win, each-way, double, treble of Goliath. Those multi bets are often reserve of the ‘mug punters’ as the chance of winning a giant payout for a small bet is elusive and by all accounts a rarity.
Not to say that any bet can’t be a good bet.
As I often say, skill comes before money. If you know more than the layers you will make your betting pay. Patrick Veitch, a well-known professional gambler, estimated that he won over £7M over a seven-year period. You can read about his exploits in a very good book: Enemy Number One, published by the Racing Post.
Value is the key to successful gambling. However, there is an even more exciting concept called extreme value.
Extreme value can only be found by using data analysis and finding angles which few gamblers or layers appreciate. This advantage is understood by a limited number of professional gamblers who are literally cleaning up. The best angle for them is that even the bookmakers cannot anticipate their actions which leaves them vulnerable. For this reason, many are restricting winning punter’s accounts if not closing them down. However, these professionals don’t let that restrict them at all. The have found ways of betting which go beyond their detection or using the betting exchanges where their activity is part and parcel of the markets.
If you notice a horse has been substantially backed you can pretty much guarantee it is one of the limited number of professional gamblers who are using the technique known as extreme value.
This concept is in its infancy but it is making waves in betting markets covering all sports and if you are lucky you may even be given the opportunity to join forces with such teams. It is unlikely at this early stage but as the markets adjust to their activities they will look to subscribers to pay a bounty for such knowledge. Not that individuals will get their hands on the source data. Subscribers will put £5,000 into an account and they will get a percentage of the profit. This works well for the founders as they are guaranteed a bigger profit without any loss.
If you hear about a horse being substantially backed then you can guarantee it is from the extreme value group.